Latest Opinion Poll for the North Rhine-Westphalia State Election (Institut Wahlkreisprognose, October 31, 2021)

October 26, 2021 - October 31, 2021

1009 respondents

Next General election in North Rhine-Westphalia: 2027

The next General election in North Rhine-Westphalia is expected in 2027.

North Rhine-Westphalia's Incumbent Government Lacks Majority

Based on the Institut Wahlkreisprognose projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 46.4% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Institut Wahlkreisprognose?

In the latest opinion poll for the North Rhine-Westphalia state election, conducted by Institut Wahlkreisprognose on October 31, 2021, SPD leads with 30%. Trailing are CDU: 27%, Grüne: 16%, FDP: 14%, AfD: 5% and Die Linke: 3%. Other parties secure 5% of the votes.

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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Institut Wahlkreisprognose Projection?

87

PolitPro Score

Institut Wahlkreisprognose achieved a PolitPro Score of 87 out of 100.

1.1

Election Accuracy

On average, Institut Wahlkreisprognose's figures deviate by 1.1 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

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Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

181
Majority requires 91 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the state election in North Rhine-Westphalia is 5%.

CDU + SPD
Centre-Right
60.2%
CDU + AfD
Right
59.1%
CDU + Grüne
Centre
55.8%
CDU + Die Linke
Centre-Right
49.2%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Forsa)

According to Forsa, 5 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the North Rhine-Westphalia Landtag: CDU with 75 representatives, SPD with 34 representatives, AfD with 32 representatives, Grüne with 26 representatives and Die Linke with 14 representatives.

North Rhine-Westphalia's Electoral System

North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), Germany's most populous state, employs a personalized proportional representation electoral system. With 128 constituencies, the Landtag (state parliament) in Düsseldorf, boasting a minimum of 181 seats, ranks among Europe's largest. The high number of direct mandates frequently results in numerous overhang and leveling seats, potentially expanding the total number of representatives to over 200.

Electoral Thresholds

The five-percent threshold stands as the sole barrier for parties to enter the Landtag. As NRW is considered the 'heartland' of Social Democracy and a vital industrial hub, the battle for 5% here often serves as a crucial barometer for national sentiment. No basic mandate clause applies.

Government Formation and Traditions

Coalitions forged in NRW frequently serve as blueprints for federal government formations. Currently, a black-green alliance governs, demonstrating how industrial interests and climate protection can be reconciled. Forming a government in the 'Ständehaus' (state parliament building) demands diplomatic skill to unite the diverse interests of the Ruhr region, Rhineland, and Westphalia.

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Data Sources and Methodology

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