Latest Opinion Poll for the North Rhine-Westphalia State Election (Mentefactum, November 21, 2018)

November 19, 2018 - November 21, 2018

1004 respondents

Next General election in North Rhine-Westphalia: 2027

The next General election in North Rhine-Westphalia is expected in 2027.

North Rhine-Westphalia Government Majority Currently Uncertain

Based on the Mentefactum projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 48.6% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Mentefactum?

In the latest opinion poll for the North Rhine-Westphalia state election, conducted by Mentefactum on November 21, 2018, CDU leads with 28%. Trailing are Grüne: 19%, SPD: 19%, AfD: 11%, FDP: 11% and Die Linke: 8%. Other parties secure 4% of the votes.

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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Mentefactum Projection?

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PolitPro Score

Mentefactum achieved a PolitPro Score of ? out of 100.

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Election Accuracy

On average, Mentefactum's figures deviate by percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Mentefactum at a Glance
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Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

181
Majority requires 91 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the state election in North Rhine-Westphalia is 5%.

CDU + Grüne + SPD
Centre-Left
68.5%
CDU + Grüne + FDP
Centre-Left
60.2%
CDU + SPD + FDP
Centre
60.2%
CDU + AfD + FDP
Centre-Right
51.9%
Grüne + SPD + FDP
Left
51.4%
CDU + Grüne
Centre
48.6%
CDU + SPD
Centre
48.6%
Grüne + SPD + Die Linke
Left
48.1%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Mentefactum)

According to Mentefactum, 6 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the North Rhine-Westphalia Landtag: CDU with 52 representatives, Grüne with 36 representatives, SPD with 36 representatives, AfD with 21 representatives, FDP with 21 representatives and Die Linke with 15 representatives.

North Rhine-Westphalia's Electoral System

North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), Germany's most populous state, employs a personalized proportional representation electoral system. With 128 constituencies, the Landtag (state parliament) in Düsseldorf, boasting a minimum of 181 seats, ranks among Europe's largest. The high number of direct mandates frequently results in numerous overhang and leveling seats, potentially expanding the total number of representatives to over 200.

Electoral Thresholds

The five-percent threshold stands as the sole barrier for parties to enter the Landtag. As NRW is considered the 'heartland' of Social Democracy and a vital industrial hub, the battle for 5% here often serves as a crucial barometer for national sentiment. No basic mandate clause applies.

Government Formation and Traditions

Coalitions forged in NRW frequently serve as blueprints for federal government formations. Currently, a black-green alliance governs, demonstrating how industrial interests and climate protection can be reconciled. Forming a government in the 'Ständehaus' (state parliament building) demands diplomatic skill to unite the diverse interests of the Ruhr region, Rhineland, and Westphalia.

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Data Sources and Methodology

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