North Rhine-Westphalia: Poll by Forsa from 04.12.2024

Polling data

CDU
41.0
+4.0
SPD
16.0
±0.0
Grüne
14.0
-2.0
AfD
13.0
±0.0
BSW
3.0
-1.0
FDP
3.0
-1.0
Linke
2.0
±0.0
Others
8.0
±0.0
Development since the last election on 15.05.2022
CDU
+5.3
SPD
-10.7
Grüne
-4.2
AfD
+7.6
BSW
New
FDP
-2.9
Linke
-0.1
Forsa – 1508 respondents – 26.11.2024-04.12.2024

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in North Rhine-Westphalia is expected to take place in 2027.

Institute often rates AfD lower

In 35% of election polls Forsa rates AfD lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates BSW lower

In 48% of election polls Forsa rates BSW lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

North Rhine-Westphalia - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in North Rhine-Westphalia from Forsa shows the following results: CDU 41%, SPD 16%, Grüne 14%, AfD 13%, BSW 3%, FDP 3% and Die Linke 2%. If an election were held in North Rhine-Westphalia this Sunday, AfD might gain the most in voter favorability with +7.6 growth since the last election. SPD, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-10.7) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Hendrik Wüst is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Grüne and CDU. With 65.8% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by Forsa. For this purpose, 1508 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 8 days (26.11.2024 - 04.12.2024).

Coalition possibilities

181
Majority requires 91 seats
SPD
34
18.8%
Grüne
30
16.6%
CDU
89
49.2%
AfD
28
15.5%
CDU + SPD
68.0%
CDU + Grüne
65.7%
CDU + AfD
64.6%
CDU
49.2%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in North Rhine-Westphalia was conducted by Forsa. The survey took place between 26.11.2024 and 04.12.2024 among 1508 eligible voters. After this election poll would get CDU 41%, SPD 16%, Grüne 14%, AfD 13%, BSW 3%, FDP 3% and Die Linke 2%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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