Latest voting intention survey by Kantar for Norway
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Norway conducted by Kantar, the parties received the following results: Høyre 27%, Arbeiderpartiet 20.6%, Fremskrittspartiet 12.6%, Sosialistisk Venstreparti 8.7%, Venstre 6.5%, Senterpartiet 6.1%, Rødt 4.9%, INP 4.3%, Kristelig Folkeparti 4.1% and De Grønne 3.8%. The voting intention survey was conducted during the period 02.10.2023. The sample size is unknown.
Unbekannt
02.10.2023
Kantar
Seats in parliament
169
Majority requires 85 seats
SV
16
9.5%
R
8
4.7%
Ap
37
21.9%
V
12
7.1%
Sp
10
5.9%
H
49
29%
KrF
7
4.1%
FrP
23
13.6%
INP
7
4.1%
Høyre + Fremskrittspartiet + Venstre + Senterpartiet
Høyre + Fremskrittspartiet + Venstre + Kristelig Folkeparti
Høyre + Fremskrittspartiet + Venstre + INP
Høyre + Fremskrittspartiet + Senterpartiet + Kristelig Folkeparti
Høyre + Fremskrittspartiet + Senterpartiet + INP
Høyre + Arbeiderpartiet
Høyre + Fremskrittspartiet + Kristelig Folkeparti + INP
Høyre + Venstre + Senterpartiet + Kristelig Folkeparti + INP
Høyre + Fremskrittspartiet + Venstre
Arbeiderpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti + Venstre + Senterpartiet + Rødt
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Kantar pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 0.9 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
0.89
|
Parliamentary Election in Norwegen 2021 | 3/6 |
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.