Latest voting intention survey by Kantar TNS for Norway
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Norway conducted by Kantar TNS, the parties received the following results: Arbeiderpartiet 24.7%, Høyre 19.6%, Senterpartiet 13%, Fremskrittspartiet 11.4%, Sosialistisk Venstreparti 9.6%, De Grønne 5.7%, Rødt 5.5%, Kristelig Folkeparti 3.9% and Venstre 3.2%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1182 people during the period 01.09.2020 - 01.09.2020. The survey was commissioned by TV2.
1182 participants
25.08.2020 - 01.09.2020
Kantar TNS
TV2
Seats in parliament
169
Majority requires 85 seats
SV
18
10.7%
R
10
5.9%
Ap
47
27.8%
MDG
10
5.9%
Sp
25
14.8%
H
38
22.5%
FrP
21
12.4%
Arbeiderpartiet + Senterpartiet + Rødt + De Grønne
Arbeiderpartiet + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti
Arbeiderpartiet + Høyre
Arbeiderpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti + Rødt + De Grønne
Høyre + Senterpartiet + Fremskrittspartiet
Rating of parties
Institute often rates Fremskrittspartiet lower
In 31% of election polls Kantar TNS rates Fremskrittspartiet lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Kantar TNS pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.7 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
1.65
|
Parliamentary Election in Norwegen 2017 | 4/4 |
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.