Current election polls and polling data from Norfakta

Latest voting intention survey by Norfakta for Norway

In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Norway conducted by Norfakta, the parties received the following results: Fremskrittspartiet 26.1%, Arbeiderpartiet 25.5%, Høyre 17.6%, Rødt 6.4%, Senterpartiet 6.1%, De Grønne 5%, Sosialistisk Venstreparti 5%, Kristelig Folkeparti 3% and Venstre 2.8%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1000 people during the period 03.12.2025 - 03.12.2025.
1000 participants
02.12.2025 - 03.12.2025
Norfakta
Development since the last election on 08.09.2025
FrP
+2.2
Ap
-2.7
H
+3.0
R
+1.1
Sp
+0.5
MDG
+0.3
SV
-0.5
KrF
-1.2
V
-0.9
FrP
26.1
-1.2
Ap
25.5
+1.2
H
17.6
+1.0
R
6.4
+0.2
Sp
6.1
+0.7
MDG
5.0
-0.1
SV
5.0
+0.3
KrF
3.0
-0.7
V
2.8
-0.4
Others
2.5
-1.0

Seats in parliament

169
Majority requires 85 seats
R
11
6.5%
SV
9
5.3%
Ap
47
27.8%
MDG
9
5.3%
Sp
11
6.5%
H
33
19.5%
FrP
49
29%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Senterpartiet
55.0%
Arbeiderpartiet + Høyre + Senterpartiet
53.8%
Arbeiderpartiet + Høyre + De Grønne
52.7%
Arbeiderpartiet + Rødt + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti + De Grønne
51.5%
86

PolitPro Score

Norfakta achieves a score of 86/100 in the PolitPro Score.

What is the PolitPro Score?

The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.

Rating of parties

Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)

Lower
Similar
Higher
Ap
18
59
23
FrP
22
71
8
H
13
60
27
KrF
0
100
0
MDG
5
90
5
R
9
91
0
SV
10
82
8
Sp
6
83
10
V
3
94
4

What are significant differences?

The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.

Accuracy in elections

1.1

Average deviation

On average, party poll results in Norfakta pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.1 percentage points.

Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from the Results of Recent Elections

Deviation Election Rank
1.18
 Parliamentary Election in Norway 2025 3/6
1.04
 Parliamentary Election in Norway 2021 4/6
0.94
 Parliamentary Election in Norway 2017 3/5

How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?

The accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls matched the actual election results.
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