Latest Opinion Poll for the Norwegian Election (Ipsos MMI, February 19, 2020)

February 17, 2020 - February 19, 2020

1000 respondents

Next General Election in Norway: 2029

The next General Election in Norway is expected in 2029.

Norway's Incumbent Government Without a Majority

Based on the Ipsos MMI projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 47.9% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Ipsos MMI?

In the latest opinion poll for the election in Norway, conducted by Ipsos MMI on February 19, 2020, Arbeiderpartiet leads with 25.8%. Trailing are Høyre: 18.8%, Senterpartiet: 14.8%, Fremskrittspartiet: 14.2%, Sosialistisk Venstreparti: 7.1%, De Grønne: 5.4%, Kristelig Folkeparti: 3.6%, Rødt: 3.5% and Venstre: 3.5%. Other parties secure 3.3% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Norway
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Ipsos MMI Projection?

82

PolitPro Score

Ipsos MMI achieved a PolitPro Score of 82 out of 100.

0.6

Election Accuracy

On average, Ipsos MMI's figures deviate by 0.6 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Ipsos MMI at a Glance
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Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

169
Majority requires 85 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for Norway's election is 4%.

Høyre + Senterpartiet + Fremskrittspartiet
Centre-Right
56.2%
Arbeiderpartiet + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti
Centre-Left
55.6%
Arbeiderpartiet + Senterpartiet + De Grønne
Centre-Left
53.8%
Arbeiderpartiet + Høyre
Centre-Left
52.1%
Arbeiderpartiet + Senterpartiet
Centre
47.9%
Høyre + Senterpartiet + De Grønne
Centre
45.6%
Arbeiderpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti + De Grønne
Centre-Left
43.8%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Ipsos MMI)

According to Ipsos MMI, 6 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Norwegian parliament: Arbeiderpartiet with 51 representatives, Høyre with 37 representatives, Senterpartiet with 30 representatives, Fremskrittspartiet with 28 representatives, Sosialistisk Venstreparti with 13 representatives and De Grønne with 10 representatives.

Norway's Electoral System

The Norwegian Parliament, the Storting, comprises 169 representatives elected every four years. Norway employs a system of proportional representation across 19 electoral districts, corresponding to its traditional counties (fylker). Of the 169 seats, 150 are directly allocated as district mandates within these constituencies. The remaining 19 seats are compensatory (or leveling) mandates (utjevningsmandater), one for each district, designed to ensure nationwide proportionality between vote share and seat distribution. A unique feature is that the Storting is elected for a full four-year term; the Norwegian Constitution explicitly prohibits early elections.

Electoral Thresholds

Norway does not impose a fixed percentage threshold for winning district mandates; success here hinges on results within individual electoral districts. However, to qualify for the distribution of the 19 compensatory seats, a party must achieve a nationwide threshold of 4%. This hurdle holds immense significance in Norwegian politics, as crossing or failing to meet the 4% mark frequently determines which political bloc (center-left or center-right) can form a majority in the Storting.

Government Formation and Traditions

Norway operates under a system known as 'negative parliamentarism'. This means a government does not require a formal vote of confidence from the Storting upon taking office; it merely needs to avoid an active majority voting against it. This system strongly favors the formation of minority governments, which are highly prevalent in Norway. These governments rely on firm agreements with supporting parties in Parliament to pass budgets and crucial legislation. Norway's political culture is deeply rooted in consensus-building and cross-party cooperation.

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Data Sources and Methodology

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