Latest Opinion Poll for the Norwegian Election (Norstat, April 18, 2026)

April 13, 2026 - April 18, 2026

1000 respondents

Next General Election in Norway: 2029

The next General Election in Norway is expected in 2029.

Norway's Incumbent Government Without a Majority

Based on the Norstat projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 29.6% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Norstat?

According to the latest national poll in Norway by Norstat, Fremskrittspartiet leads with 29.2%. They are followed by Arbeiderpartiet: 21%, Høyre: 17.7%, Rødt: 7.3%, Senterpartiet: 5.3%, Sosialistisk Venstreparti: 5.1%, Venstre: 4.2%, De Grønne: 3.8% and Kristelig Folkeparti: 3.7%. Other parties secure 2.7% of the votes.

Quality Check: How Reliable is the Norstat Projection?

83

PolitPro Score

Norstat achieved a PolitPro Score of 83 out of 100.

1.0

Election Accuracy

On average, Norstat's figures deviate by 1.0 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for Norway's election is 4%.

Arbeiderpartiet + Høyre + Senterpartiet + Venstre
Centre-Left
53.8%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre
Centre-Right
52.7%
Fremskrittspartiet + Rødt + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti
Centre-Right
52.1%
Fremskrittspartiet + Rødt + Senterpartiet + Venstre
Centre-Right
50.9%
Fremskrittspartiet + Rødt + Sosialistisk Venstreparti + Venstre
Centre-Right
50.3%
Arbeiderpartiet + Høyre + Senterpartiet
Centre
49.7%
Fremskrittspartiet + Rødt + Senterpartiet
Centre-Right
46.7%
Fremskrittspartiet + Rødt + Sosialistisk Venstreparti
Centre-Right
46.2%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Norstat)

According to Norstat, 7 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Norwegian parliament: Fremskrittspartiet with 55 representatives, Arbeiderpartiet with 40 representatives, Høyre with 34 representatives, Rødt with 14 representatives, Senterpartiet with 10 representatives, Sosialistisk Venstreparti with 9 representatives and Venstre with 7 representatives.

Norway's Electoral System

The Norwegian Parliament, the Storting, comprises 169 representatives elected every four years. Norway employs a system of proportional representation across 19 electoral districts, corresponding to its traditional counties (fylker). Of the 169 seats, 150 are directly allocated as district mandates within these constituencies. The remaining 19 seats are compensatory (or leveling) mandates (utjevningsmandater), one for each district, designed to ensure nationwide proportionality between vote share and seat distribution. A unique feature is that the Storting is elected for a full four-year term; the Norwegian Constitution explicitly prohibits early elections.

Electoral Thresholds

Norway does not impose a fixed percentage threshold for winning district mandates; success here hinges on results within individual electoral districts. However, to qualify for the distribution of the 19 compensatory seats, a party must achieve a nationwide threshold of 4%. This hurdle holds immense significance in Norwegian politics, as crossing or failing to meet the 4% mark frequently determines which political bloc (center-left or center-right) can form a majority in the Storting.

Government Formation and Traditions

Norway operates under a system known as 'negative parliamentarism'. This means a government does not require a formal vote of confidence from the Storting upon taking office; it merely needs to avoid an active majority voting against it. This system strongly favors the formation of minority governments, which are highly prevalent in Norway. These governments rely on firm agreements with supporting parties in Parliament to pass budgets and crucial legislation. Norway's political culture is deeply rooted in consensus-building and cross-party cooperation.

Data Sources and Methodology

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