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Latest Opinion Poll for the Norwegian Election (Opinion Perduco, January 15, 2020)

January 15, 2020

962 respondents

Next General Election in Norway: 2029

The next General Election in Norway is expected in 2029.

Norway's Government Majority Currently Uncertain

Based on the Opinion Perduco projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 50.9% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Opinion Perduco?

According to the latest national poll in Norway by Opinion Perduco, Arbeiderpartiet leads with 25.5%. They are followed by Senterpartiet: 20.9%, Høyre: 18.7%, Fremskrittspartiet: 11.8%, Sosialistisk Venstreparti: 7.4%, Rødt: 4.4%, De Grønne: 4.3%, Venstre: 2.7% and Kristelig Folkeparti: 2.5%. Other parties secure 1.8% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Norway
Poll results, coalitions, and election data
All Election Polls
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Information, comparisons, and data on parties in Norway
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Opinion Perduco Projection?

82

PolitPro Score

Opinion Perduco achieved a PolitPro Score of 82 out of 100.

0.8

Election Accuracy

On average, Opinion Perduco's figures deviate by 0.8 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Opinion Perduco at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for Norway's election is 4%.

PolitPro Analysis
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How Does the PolitPro Analysis Work?

Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.

Unlock Analysis
Senterpartiet + Høyre + Fremskrittspartiet
Centre-Right
56.2%
Arbeiderpartiet + Høyre + De Grønne
Centre-Left
52.1%
Arbeiderpartiet + Senterpartiet
Centre
50.9%
Arbeiderpartiet + Høyre
Centre-Left
47.9%
Senterpartiet + Fremskrittspartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti + Rødt
Centre-Right
47.9%
Senterpartiet + Høyre + De Grønne
Centre
47.3%
Senterpartiet + Fremskrittspartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti
Centre-Right
43.8%
Senterpartiet + Høyre
Centre-Right
43.2%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Opinion Perduco)

According to Opinion Perduco, 7 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Norwegian parliament: Arbeiderpartiet with 47 representatives, Senterpartiet with 39 representatives, Høyre with 34 representatives, Fremskrittspartiet with 22 representatives, Sosialistisk Venstreparti with 13 representatives, Rødt with 7 representatives and De Grønne with 7 representatives.

Norway's Electoral System

The Norwegian Parliament, the Storting, comprises 169 representatives elected every four years. Norway employs a system of proportional representation across 19 electoral districts, corresponding to its traditional counties (fylker). Of the 169 seats, 150 are directly allocated as district mandates within these constituencies. The remaining 19 seats are compensatory (or leveling) mandates (utjevningsmandater), one for each district, designed to ensure nationwide proportionality between vote share and seat distribution. A unique feature is that the Storting is elected for a full four-year term; the Norwegian Constitution explicitly prohibits early elections.

Electoral Thresholds

Norway does not impose a fixed percentage threshold for winning district mandates; success here hinges on results within individual electoral districts. However, to qualify for the distribution of the 19 compensatory seats, a party must achieve a nationwide threshold of 4%. This hurdle holds immense significance in Norwegian politics, as crossing or failing to meet the 4% mark frequently determines which political bloc (center-left or center-right) can form a majority in the Storting.

Government Formation and Traditions

Norway operates under a system known as 'negative parliamentarism'. This means a government does not require a formal vote of confidence from the Storting upon taking office; it merely needs to avoid an active majority voting against it. This system strongly favors the formation of minority governments, which are highly prevalent in Norway. These governments rely on firm agreements with supporting parties in Parliament to pass budgets and crucial legislation. Norway's political culture is deeply rooted in consensus-building and cross-party cooperation.

Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

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