Latest Opinion Poll for the Norwegian Election (Opinion Perduco, February 10, 2020)

February 4, 2020 - February 10, 2020

969 respondents

Next General election in Norway: 2029

The next General election in Norway is expected in 2029.

Norway's Incumbent Government Without a Majority

Based on the Opinion Perduco projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 42.6% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Opinion Perduco?

In the latest opinion poll for the election in Norway, conducted by Opinion Perduco on February 10, 2020, Arbeiderpartiet leads with 25.1%. Trailing are Høyre: 19.4%, Senterpartiet: 15.2%, Fremskrittspartiet: 15.1%, Sosialistisk Venstreparti: 6.5%, Rødt: 5.3%, De Grønne: 4.6%, Venstre: 4.2% and Kristelig Folkeparti: 3.5%. Other parties secure 1.1% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Norway
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Opinion Perduco Projection?

87

PolitPro Score

Opinion Perduco achieved a PolitPro Score of 87 out of 100.

0.8

Election Accuracy

On average, Opinion Perduco's figures deviate by 0.8 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Opinion Perduco at a Glance
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Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

169
Majority requires 85 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for Norway's election is 4%.

Arbeiderpartiet + Høyre + Senterpartiet + Kristelig Folkeparti
Centre
54.4%
Arbeiderpartiet + Høyre + Senterpartiet + De Grønne
Centre-Left
54.4%
Arbeiderpartiet + Høyre + De Grønne + Kristelig Folkeparti
Centre-Left
53.8%
Arbeiderpartiet + Høyre + Senterpartiet + Venstre
Centre-Left
53.8%
Arbeiderpartiet + Rødt + Sosialistisk Venstreparti + Senterpartiet + De Grønne
Centre-Left
53.3%
Arbeiderpartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Venstre
Centre-Left
53.3%
Arbeiderpartiet + Rødt + Sosialistisk Venstreparti + Senterpartiet + Venstre
Centre-Left
52.7%
Arbeiderpartiet + Høyre + Senterpartiet
Centre-Left
49.7%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Norstat)

According to Norstat, 9 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Norwegian parliament: Arbeiderpartiet with 49 representatives, Fremskrittspartiet with 38 representatives, Høyre with 26 representatives, Sosialistisk Venstreparti with 12 representatives, Rødt with 12 representatives, Senterpartiet with 9 representatives, Kristelig Folkeparti with 8 representatives, De Grønne with 8 representatives and Venstre with 7 representatives.

Norway's Electoral System

The Norwegian Parliament, the Storting, comprises 169 representatives elected every four years. Norway employs a system of proportional representation across 19 electoral districts, corresponding to its traditional counties (fylker). Of the 169 seats, 150 are directly allocated as district mandates within these constituencies. The remaining 19 seats are compensatory (or leveling) mandates (utjevningsmandater), one for each district, designed to ensure nationwide proportionality between vote share and seat distribution. A unique feature is that the Storting is elected for a full four-year term; the Norwegian Constitution explicitly prohibits early elections.

Electoral Thresholds

Norway does not impose a fixed percentage threshold for winning district mandates; success here hinges on results within individual electoral districts. However, to qualify for the distribution of the 19 compensatory seats, a party must achieve a nationwide threshold of 4%. This hurdle holds immense significance in Norwegian politics, as crossing or failing to meet the 4% mark frequently determines which political bloc (center-left or center-right) can form a majority in the Storting.

Government Formation and Traditions

Norway operates under a system known as 'negative parliamentarism'. This means a government does not require a formal vote of confidence from the Storting upon taking office; it merely needs to avoid an active majority voting against it. This system strongly favors the formation of minority governments, which are highly prevalent in Norway. These governments rely on firm agreements with supporting parties in Parliament to pass budgets and crucial legislation. Norway's political culture is deeply rooted in consensus-building and cross-party cooperation.

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Data Sources and Methodology

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