Latest Opinion Poll for the Norwegian Election (Respons Analyse, March 2, 2020)

February 27, 2020 - March 2, 2020

1000 respondents

Next General election in Norway: 2029

The next General election in Norway is expected in 2029.

Norway's Incumbent Government Without a Majority

Based on the Respons Analyse projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 45.6% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Respons Analyse?

In the latest opinion poll for the election in Norway, conducted by Respons Analyse on March 2, 2020, Arbeiderpartiet leads with 24.9%. Trailing are Høyre: 17.9%, Senterpartiet: 16.7%, Fremskrittspartiet: 14.6%, Sosialistisk Venstreparti: 7.2%, Rødt: 5.4%, De Grønne: 5.1%, Kristelig Folkeparti: 3.5% and Venstre: 3.3%. Other parties secure 1.4% of the votes.

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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Respons Analyse Projection?

79

PolitPro Score

Respons Analyse achieved a PolitPro Score of 79 out of 100.

1.2

Election Accuracy

On average, Respons Analyse's figures deviate by 1.2 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

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Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

169
Majority requires 85 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for Norway's election is 4%.

Høyre + Arbeiderpartiet + Senterpartiet
Centre
55.0%
Høyre + Arbeiderpartiet + Venstre
Centre-Left
55.0%
Høyre + Arbeiderpartiet + De Grønne
Centre-Left
53.3%
Høyre + Fremskrittspartiet + Senterpartiet + Venstre
Centre
52.1%
Arbeiderpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti + Rødt + Senterpartiet + Venstre
Centre-Left
50.9%
Høyre + Fremskrittspartiet + Senterpartiet + INP
Centre-Right
50.9%
Høyre + Fremskrittspartiet + Venstre + INP
Centre
50.9%
Høyre + Arbeiderpartiet
Centre-Left
49.1%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Opinion)

According to Opinion, 9 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Norwegian parliament: Høyre with 46 representatives, Arbeiderpartiet with 37 representatives, Fremskrittspartiet with 22 representatives, Sosialistisk Venstreparti with 17 representatives, Rødt with 12 representatives, Senterpartiet with 10 representatives, Venstre with 10 representatives, INP with 8 representatives and De Grønne with 7 representatives.

Norway's Electoral System

The Norwegian Parliament, the Storting, comprises 169 representatives elected every four years. Norway employs a system of proportional representation across 19 electoral districts, corresponding to its traditional counties (fylker). Of the 169 seats, 150 are directly allocated as district mandates within these constituencies. The remaining 19 seats are compensatory (or leveling) mandates (utjevningsmandater), one for each district, designed to ensure nationwide proportionality between vote share and seat distribution. A unique feature is that the Storting is elected for a full four-year term; the Norwegian Constitution explicitly prohibits early elections.

Electoral Thresholds

Norway does not impose a fixed percentage threshold for winning district mandates; success here hinges on results within individual electoral districts. However, to qualify for the distribution of the 19 compensatory seats, a party must achieve a nationwide threshold of 4%. This hurdle holds immense significance in Norwegian politics, as crossing or failing to meet the 4% mark frequently determines which political bloc (center-left or center-right) can form a majority in the Storting.

Government Formation and Traditions

Norway operates under a system known as 'negative parliamentarism'. This means a government does not require a formal vote of confidence from the Storting upon taking office; it merely needs to avoid an active majority voting against it. This system strongly favors the formation of minority governments, which are highly prevalent in Norway. These governments rely on firm agreements with supporting parties in Parliament to pass budgets and crucial legislation. Norway's political culture is deeply rooted in consensus-building and cross-party cooperation.

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Data Sources and Methodology

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