Latest Opinion Poll for the Norwegian Election (Sentio, August 16, 2020)

August 11, 2020 - August 16, 2020

1000 respondents

Next General election in Norway: 2029

The next General election in Norway is expected in 2029.

Norway's Incumbent Government Without a Majority

Based on the Sentio projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 39.6% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Sentio?

In the latest opinion poll for the election in Norway, conducted by Sentio on August 16, 2020, Høyre leads with 28.7%. Trailing are Arbeiderpartiet: 23.1%, Fremskrittspartiet: 12.8%, Senterpartiet: 12.6%, Sosialistisk Venstreparti: 8%, Rødt: 4.1%, De Grønne: 3.9%, Kristelig Folkeparti: 2.6% and Venstre: 2.1%. Other parties secure 2.1% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Norway
Poll results, coalitions, and election data
All Election Polls
Latest surveys from all institutes and historical data
What do the parties stand for?
Information, comparisons, and data on parties in Norway

Quality Check: How Reliable is the Sentio Projection?

75

PolitPro Score

Sentio achieved a PolitPro Score of 75 out of 100.

?

Election Accuracy

On average, Sentio's figures deviate by percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Sentio at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

169
Majority requires 85 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for Norway's election is 4%.

Høyre + Senterpartiet + Fremskrittspartiet
Centre-Right
56.8%
Arbeiderpartiet + Høyre
Centre-Left
54.4%
Arbeiderpartiet + Senterpartiet + De Grønne + Kristelig Folkeparti
Centre
52.7%
Høyre + Senterpartiet + De Grønne + Kristelig Folkeparti
Centre
52.7%
Arbeiderpartiet + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti
Centre-Left
50.9%
Arbeiderpartiet + Senterpartiet + De Grønne
Centre
48.5%
Høyre + Senterpartiet + De Grønne
Centre
48.5%
Arbeiderpartiet + Senterpartiet + Kristelig Folkeparti
Centre
47.9%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Kantar TNS)

According to Kantar TNS, 7 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Norwegian parliament: Arbeiderpartiet with 46 representatives, Høyre with 46 representatives, Senterpartiet with 28 representatives, Fremskrittspartiet with 22 representatives, Sosialistisk Venstreparti with 12 representatives, De Grønne with 8 representatives and Kristelig Folkeparti with 7 representatives.

Norway's Electoral System

The Norwegian Parliament, the Storting, comprises 169 representatives elected every four years. Norway employs a system of proportional representation across 19 electoral districts, corresponding to its traditional counties (fylker). Of the 169 seats, 150 are directly allocated as district mandates within these constituencies. The remaining 19 seats are compensatory (or leveling) mandates (utjevningsmandater), one for each district, designed to ensure nationwide proportionality between vote share and seat distribution. A unique feature is that the Storting is elected for a full four-year term; the Norwegian Constitution explicitly prohibits early elections.

Electoral Thresholds

Norway does not impose a fixed percentage threshold for winning district mandates; success here hinges on results within individual electoral districts. However, to qualify for the distribution of the 19 compensatory seats, a party must achieve a nationwide threshold of 4%. This hurdle holds immense significance in Norwegian politics, as crossing or failing to meet the 4% mark frequently determines which political bloc (center-left or center-right) can form a majority in the Storting.

Government Formation and Traditions

Norway operates under a system known as 'negative parliamentarism'. This means a government does not require a formal vote of confidence from the Storting upon taking office; it merely needs to avoid an active majority voting against it. This system strongly favors the formation of minority governments, which are highly prevalent in Norway. These governments rely on firm agreements with supporting parties in Parliament to pass budgets and crucial legislation. Norway's political culture is deeply rooted in consensus-building and cross-party cooperation.

Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

PolitPro

PolitPro bridges the gap between scientific research and current polling. We supplement leading datasets with our own proprietary research and algorithms to make complex political contexts tangible and accessible. Powered by AI.

Found a Mistake?

Political data is constantly evolving. If you spot an error, please let us know. A brief reference to your source will help us verify and update the information.