Latest Opinion Poll for the Norwegian Election (Verian, November 1, 2024)

October 28, 2024 - November 1, 2024

999 respondents

Next General election in Norway: 2029

The next General election in Norway is expected in 2029.

Norway's Incumbent Government Without a Majority

Based on the Verian projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 27.8% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Verian?

In the latest opinion poll for the election in Norway, conducted by Verian on November 1, 2024, Høyre leads with 25.7%. Trailing are Fremskrittspartiet: 19.7%, Arbeiderpartiet: 17.7%, Sosialistisk Venstreparti: 9.1%, Senterpartiet: 7.7%, Venstre: 6.1%, Rødt: 5.7%, De Grønne: 3.4% and Kristelig Folkeparti: 2.8%. Other parties secure 2.1% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Norway
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Verian Projection?

79

PolitPro Score

Verian achieved a PolitPro Score of 79 out of 100.

0.8

Election Accuracy

On average, Verian's figures deviate by 0.8 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Verian at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

169
Majority requires 85 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for Norway's election is 4%.

Arbeiderpartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Venstre
Centre-Left
53.8%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Senterpartiet + Kristelig Folkeparti
Centre-Right
53.3%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Senterpartiet + Venstre
Centre-Right
52.7%
Arbeiderpartiet + Rødt + Sosialistisk Venstreparti + Senterpartiet + Venstre
Centre-Left
52.1%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Venstre
Centre-Right
52.1%
Arbeiderpartiet + Høyre + Senterpartiet
Centre-Left
50.3%
Arbeiderpartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti
Centre-Left
49.7%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Senterpartiet
Centre-Right
48.5%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Opinion)

According to Opinion, 8 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Norwegian parliament: Arbeiderpartiet with 46 representatives, Fremskrittspartiet with 43 representatives, Høyre with 30 representatives, Sosialistisk Venstreparti with 13 representatives, Rødt with 13 representatives, Senterpartiet with 9 representatives, Kristelig Folkeparti with 8 representatives and Venstre with 7 representatives.

Norway's Electoral System

The Norwegian Parliament, the Storting, comprises 169 representatives elected every four years. Norway employs a system of proportional representation across 19 electoral districts, corresponding to its traditional counties (fylker). Of the 169 seats, 150 are directly allocated as district mandates within these constituencies. The remaining 19 seats are compensatory (or leveling) mandates (utjevningsmandater), one for each district, designed to ensure nationwide proportionality between vote share and seat distribution. A unique feature is that the Storting is elected for a full four-year term; the Norwegian Constitution explicitly prohibits early elections.

Electoral Thresholds

Norway does not impose a fixed percentage threshold for winning district mandates; success here hinges on results within individual electoral districts. However, to qualify for the distribution of the 19 compensatory seats, a party must achieve a nationwide threshold of 4%. This hurdle holds immense significance in Norwegian politics, as crossing or failing to meet the 4% mark frequently determines which political bloc (center-left or center-right) can form a majority in the Storting.

Government Formation and Traditions

Norway operates under a system known as 'negative parliamentarism'. This means a government does not require a formal vote of confidence from the Storting upon taking office; it merely needs to avoid an active majority voting against it. This system strongly favors the formation of minority governments, which are highly prevalent in Norway. These governments rely on firm agreements with supporting parties in Parliament to pass budgets and crucial legislation. Norway's political culture is deeply rooted in consensus-building and cross-party cooperation.

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Data Sources and Methodology

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