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Norway Norstat: election polls, forecast accuracy and deviations

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Norstat: current voting intention polls in Norway

Last Poll August 11, 2026

View poll
Respondents: 1,001

Change from poll on May 18, 2026

FrP
30.6
-0.8
Ap
22.5
+1.4
H
14.7
-1.4
R
7.9
+0.8
Sp
5.2
±0.0
SV
4.3
-0.4
KrF
4.2
+0.4
MDG
3.9
-0.5
V
3.9
+1.2
INP
0.6
-0.4
ND
0.5
-0.3
Other
1.7
+0.5

Previous polls by Norstat

Poll on Respondents FrP Ap H R SP Sp SV KrF MDG V INP ND PP Other View poll
May 18, 2026 1,000 31.4 21.1 16.1 7.1 – 5.2 4.7 3.8 4.4 2.7 1.0 0.8 0.5 1.2
April 18, 2026 1,000 29.2 21.0 17.7 7.3 – 5.3 5.1 3.7 3.8 4.2 – – – 2.7
March 21, 2026 1,000 28.1 21.9 19.6 8.0 – 3.7 4.5 2.4 5.0 2.9 – – – 3.9
January 28, 2026 1,000 25.2 26.8 16.0 7.0 6.8 – 4.1 4.7 3.7 2.7 – – – 3.0
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Norstat at a glance

82 PolitPro Score Rank 3 of 7 in Norway
Score from 0 to 100 Avg. all polling institutes: 80.0
Avg. deviation in elections
1.0 pp

3 election comparisons

Recorded polls
116

Last on August 11, 2026

Deviations from the Election Trend

Party often overestimated Party often underestimated
Arbeiderpartiet24 % Arbeiderpartiet22 % Fremskrittspartiet22 % Senterpartiet22 % Høyre21 %

What is the PolitPro Score for polling institutes?

In the PolitPro Score for polling institutes, we assess the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and their deviation from the Election Trend. Significant deviations in party values compared to the Election Trend lead to deductions, as they can indicate favoritism or disadvantage for parties. The score has a maximum value of 100.

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Norstat: which parties does it overstate and understate?

Significant from 20 % of polls
Rødt
No significant deviation
4 % 6 %
At trend level
90 %
Polls
116
Høyre
Often rated higher
20 % 21 %
At trend level
59 %
Polls
116
Arbeiderpartiet
Deviates in both directions
24 % 22 %
At trend level
54 %
Polls
116
De Grønne
No significant deviation
5 % 3 %
At trend level
91 %
Polls
116
Venstre
No significant deviation
7 % 5 %
At trend level
88 %
Polls
116
Senterpartiet
Often rated lower
22 % 11 %
At trend level
67 %
Polls
112
Senterpartiet
Too few polls
Fewer than 5 polls – no statement possible
At trend level
–
Polls
1

How are the data calculated?

The PolitPro Election Trend, which calculates a time-weighted average of current election polls, serves as a reference. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the Election Trend.

Norstat: How accurate were its past election polls?

Accuracy in Elections 1.3 Percentage points deviation Solid Results Individual Parties: 0.0 to 3.5 percentage points
Last Election Parliamentary election in Norway 2025 Rank 5 of 6 institutes
Very Accurate Very Inaccurate
Parliamentary election in Norway 2021: 0.8, Parliamentary election in Norway 2017: 0.9, Parliamentary election in Norway 2025: 1.3
2 Very Reliable

In 2 elections, the pre-election poll was only slightly off the result.

1 Solid Results

In 1 elections, the pre-election poll deviated moderately from the result on average.

0 Significant Deviations

In 0 elections, pre-election polls and results differed significantly.

0 Very Large Deviations

In 0 elections, the pre-election poll significantly missed the result.

3 elections compared with Norstat · Select point for details, tap category to highlight.

How do we calculate accuracy in elections?

Accuracy shows how close pre-election polls were to the actual election result. We compare the pre-election polls of the institutes with the actual result of an election. We compare the average deviation of the parties' values and form an average from them. In the calculation, we consider all parties with an election result of 3% and higher. Election polls have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. We rate average deviations of up to one percentage point as very good (green), and up to 2 percentage points as good (yellow). Values up to 3 percentage points deviation are rated as ok (orange), but already show significant outliers for some parties. Average deviations of more than three percentage points indicate deficiencies in accuracy and significance and are rated as bad (red).

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