Norway: Poll by Opinion from 10.06.2024

Polling data

Ap
19.9
+2.6
H
19.8
-8.2
FrP
19.3
+1.5
SV
10.8
+1.1
Sp
7.2
+1.3
V
6.5
+0.7
R
5.1
+0.5
MDG
3.6
+0.1
KrF
3.3
-1.1
Others
4.5
+1.5
Development since the last election on 13.09.2021
Ap
-6.4
H
-0.6
FrP
+7.7
SV
+3.2
Sp
-6.3
V
+1.9
R
+0.4
MDG
-0.3
KrF
-0.5
Opinion – 1000 respondents – 04.06.2024-10.06.2024

Next election: 2025

The next parliamentary election in Norway is expected to take place in 2025.

Institute often rates Arbeiderpartiet lower

In 33% of election polls Opinion rates Arbeiderpartiet lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Høyre higher

In 40% of election polls, Opinion rates Høyre higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Norway - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Norway from Opinion shows the following results: Arbeiderpartiet 19.9%, Høyre 19.8%, Fremskrittspartiet 19.3%, Sosialistisk Venstreparti 10.8%, Senterpartiet 7.2%, Venstre 6.5%, Rødt 5.1%, De Grønne 3.6% and Kristelig Folkeparti 3.3%. If an election were held in Norway this Sunday, Fremskrittspartiet might gain the most in voter favorability with +7.7 growth since the last election. Arbeiderpartiet, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-6.4) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Jonas Gahr Støre is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Arbeiderpartiet and Senterpartiet. With 30.8% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Opinion. For this purpose, 1000 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 6 days (04.06.2024 - 10.06.2024).

Coalition possibilities

169
Majority requires 85 seats
SV
21
12.4%
R
9
5.3%
Ap
39
23.1%
V
12
7.1%
Sp
13
7.7%
H
38
22.5%
FrP
37
21.9%
Fremskrittspartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti + Senterpartiet + Venstre + Rødt
54.4%
Arbeiderpartiet + Høyre + Senterpartiet
53.3%
Arbeiderpartiet + Høyre + Venstre
52.7%
Høyre + Fremskrittspartiet + Senterpartiet
52.1%
Høyre + Fremskrittspartiet + Venstre
51.5%
Arbeiderpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti + Senterpartiet + Venstre
50.3%
Fremskrittspartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti + Senterpartiet + Venstre
49.1%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Norway was conducted by Opinion. The survey took place between 04.06.2024 and 10.06.2024 among 1000 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Arbeiderpartiet 19.9%, Høyre 19.8%, Fremskrittspartiet 19.3%, Sosialistisk Venstreparti 10.8%, Senterpartiet 7.2%, Venstre 6.5%, Rødt 5.1%, De Grønne 3.6% and Kristelig Folkeparti 3.3%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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