Norway
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Norway: Poll by Opinion from 09.09.2024

Polling data

H
23.7
-1.7
Ap
20.2
-0.9
FrP
20.2
+3.4
SV
8.6
-0.2
Sp
6.0
+0.1
R
5.8
-0.9
V
5.6
±0.0
MDG
2.6
-0.6
KrF
2.0
-0.5
Sonst.
5.3
+1.3
Development since the last election on 13.09.2021
H
+3.3
Ap
-6.1
FrP
+8.6
SV
+1.0
Sp
-7.5
R
+1.1
V
+1.0
MDG
-1.3
KrF
-1.8
Opinion – 1000 respondents – 03.09.2024-09.09.2024

Next election: 2025

The next parliamentary election in Norway is expected to take place in 2025.

Institute often rates Arbeiderpartiet lower

In 34% of election polls Opinion rates Arbeiderpartiet lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Høyre higher

In 44% of election polls, Opinion rates Høyre higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Norway - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Norway from Opinion shows the following results: Høyre 23.7%, Arbeiderpartiet 20.2%, Fremskrittspartiet 20.2%, Sosialistisk Venstreparti 8.6%, Senterpartiet 6%, Rødt 5.8%, Venstre 5.6%, De Grønne 2.6% and Kristelig Folkeparti 2%. If an election were held in Norway this Sunday, Fremskrittspartiet might gain the most in voter favorability with +8.6 growth since the last election. Senterpartiet, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-7.5) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Jonas Gahr Støre is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Arbeiderpartiet and Senterpartiet. With 29.1% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Opinion. For this purpose, 1000 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 6 days (03.09.2024 - 09.09.2024).

Coalition possibilities

169
SV
17
R
10
Ap
38
V
10
Sp
11
H
45
FrP
38
Majority requires 85 seats
Høyre + Arbeiderpartiet + Senterpartiet
94
Høyre + Fremskrittspartiet + Senterpartiet
94
Høyre + Arbeiderpartiet + Venstre
93
Høyre + Fremskrittspartiet + Venstre
93
Arbeiderpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti + Senterpartiet + Rødt + Venstre
86
Fremskrittspartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti + Senterpartiet + Rødt + Venstre
86
Høyre + Arbeiderpartiet
83
Høyre + Fremskrittspartiet
83

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Norway was conducted by Opinion. The survey took place between 03.09.2024 and 09.09.2024 among 1000 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Høyre 23.7%, Arbeiderpartiet 20.2%, Fremskrittspartiet 20.2%, Sosialistisk Venstreparti 8.6%, Senterpartiet 6%, Rødt 5.8%, Venstre 5.6%, De Grønne 2.6% and Kristelig Folkeparti 2%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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