Norway: Poll by Opinion from 09.12.2024

Polling data

FrP
25.3
+0.9
H
20.5
-0.5
Ap
17.7
+0.1
SV
9.4
-1.3
V
5.8
-0.1
R
5.7
-0.4
Sp
4.9
-0.4
KrF
4.0
+0.7
MDG
3.1
+0.2
Others
3.6
+0.8
Development since the last election on 13.09.2021
FrP
+13.7
H
+0.1
Ap
-8.6
SV
+1.8
V
+1.2
R
+1.0
Sp
-8.6
KrF
+0.2
MDG
-0.8
Opinion – 1000 respondents – 03.12.2024-09.12.2024

Next election: 2025

The next parliamentary election in Norway is expected to take place in 2025.

Institute often rates Arbeiderpartiet lower

In 33% of election polls Opinion rates Arbeiderpartiet lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Høyre higher

In 40% of election polls, Opinion rates Høyre higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Norway - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Norway from Opinion shows the following results: Fremskrittspartiet 25.3%, Høyre 20.5%, Arbeiderpartiet 17.7%, Sosialistisk Venstreparti 9.4%, Venstre 5.8%, Rødt 5.7%, Senterpartiet 4.9%, Kristelig Folkeparti 4% and De Grønne 3.1%. If an election were held in Norway this Sunday, Fremskrittspartiet might gain the most in voter favorability with +13.7 growth since the last election. Arbeiderpartiet, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-8.6) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Jonas Gahr Støre is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Arbeiderpartiet and Senterpartiet. With 24.2% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Opinion. For this purpose, 1000 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 6 days (03.12.2024 - 09.12.2024).

Coalition possibilities

169
Majority requires 85 seats
SV
17
10.1%
R
10
5.9%
Ap
33
19.5%
V
10
5.9%
Sp
8
4.7%
H
38
22.5%
KrF
7
4.1%
FrP
46
27.2%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Venstre
55.6%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Senterpartiet
54.4%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti
53.8%
Fremskrittspartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti + Rødt + Venstre + Senterpartiet
53.8%
Høyre + Arbeiderpartiet + Venstre + Senterpartiet
52.7%
Høyre + Arbeiderpartiet + Venstre + Kristelig Folkeparti
52.1%
Høyre + Arbeiderpartiet + Senterpartiet + Kristelig Folkeparti
50.9%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre
49.7%
Fremskrittspartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti + Rødt + Venstre
49.1%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Norway was conducted by Opinion. The survey took place between 03.12.2024 and 09.12.2024 among 1000 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Fremskrittspartiet 25.3%, Høyre 20.5%, Arbeiderpartiet 17.7%, Sosialistisk Venstreparti 9.4%, Venstre 5.8%, Rødt 5.7%, Senterpartiet 4.9%, Kristelig Folkeparti 4% and De Grønne 3.1%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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