Latest voting intention survey by CBM Indicator for Poland
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Poland conducted by CBM Indicator, the parties received the following results: ZP 37.8%, KO 28.5%, PL2050/PSL 13.4%, Lewica 10.2% and Kon 10.1%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1000 people during the period 30.05.2023 - 30.05.2023.
1000 participants
29.05.2023 - 30.05.2023
CBM Indicator
Development since the last election on 15.10.2023
Seats in parliament
460
Majority requires 231 seats
Lewica
47
10.2%
PL2050/PSL
62
13.5%
KO
131
28.5%
ZP
174
37.8%
Kon
46
10%
ZP + KO
ZP + Lewica + Kon
KO + PL2050/PSL + Lewica
KO + PL2050/PSL + Kon
ZP + PL2050/PSL
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in CBM Indicator pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.6 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
1.6
|
Parliamentary Election in Polen 2019 | 4/9 |
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.