Latest voting intention survey by IBRiS for Poland
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Poland conducted by IBRiS, the parties received the following results: KO 34.4%, PiS 32.6%, PL2050/PSL 10.8%, Kon 10.3% and Lewica 9.5%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1069 people during the period 26.10.2024 - 26.10.2024. The survey was commissioned by Rzeczpospolita.
1069 participants
26.10.2024 - 26.10.2024
IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita
Development since the last election on 15.10.2023
Seats in parliament
460
Majority requires 231 seats
Lewica
44
9.7%
PL2050/PSL
51
11.1%
KO
162
35.2%
PiS
154
33.4%
Kon
49
10.6%
KO + PiS
KO + PL2050/PSL + Kon
KO + PL2050/PSL + Lewica
KO + Kon + Lewica
PiS + PL2050/PSL + Kon
PiS + PL2050/PSL + Lewica
PiS + Kon + Lewica
Rating of parties
Institute often rates Kon lower
In 33% of election polls IBRiS rates Kon lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Lewica higher
In 40% of election polls, IBRiS rates Lewica higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates PiS higher
In 52% of election polls, IBRiS rates PiS higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates PL2050/PSL higher
In 36% of election polls, IBRiS rates PL2050/PSL higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in IBRiS pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 2.3 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
1.95
2.55
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.