Latest voting intention survey by IBSP for Poland
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Poland conducted by IBSP, the parties received the following results: PiS 37.4%, KO 27.8%, PL2050/PSL 13%, Lewica 10.3%, Kon 8.3% and BS 2.2%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1000 people during the period 13.10.2023 - 13.10.2023.
1000 participants
11.10.2023 - 13.10.2023
IBSP
Development since the last election on 15.10.2023
PiS
37.4
-1.2
KO
27.8
-2.7
PL2050/PSL
13.0
+4.3
Lewica
10.3
+1.8
Kon
8.3
-3.3
BS
2.2
+0.2
Others
1.0
+0.9
This poll is more than 3 months old.
Seats in parliament
460
Majority requires 231 seats
Lewica
49
10.7%
PL2050/PSL
62
13.5%
KO
132
28.7%
PiS
178
38.7%
Kon
39
8.5%
PiS + KO
PiS + Lewica + Kon
KO + PL2050/PSL + Lewica
PiS + PL2050/PSL
KO + PL2050/PSL + Kon
PiS + Lewica
63
PolitPro Score
IBSP achieves a score of 63/100 in the PolitPro Score.
What is the PolitPro Score?
The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
1.7
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in IBSP pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.7 percentage points.
Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from the Results of Recent Elections
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
1.78
|
Parliamentary Election in Poland 2023 | 3/11 |
|
1.7
|
Parliamentary Election in Poland 2019 | 5/9 |
How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?
The accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls matched the actual election results.