Latest voting intention survey by Kantar for Poland
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Poland conducted by Kantar, the parties received the following results: PiS 34%, KO 28%, PL2050/PSL 13%, Lewica 12%, Kon 9% and BS 3%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1702 people during the period 12.10.2023 - 12.10.2023.
1702 participants
10.10.2023 - 12.10.2023
Kantar
Development since the last election on 15.10.2023
Seats in parliament
460
Majority requires 231 seats
Lewica
57
12.4%
PL2050/PSL
62
13.5%
KO
135
29.3%
PiS
163
35.4%
Kon
43
9.3%
PiS + KO
PiS + PL2050/PSL + Lewica
PiS + PL2050/PSL + Kon
PiS + Lewica + Kon
KO + PL2050/PSL + Lewica
KO + PL2050/PSL + Kon
KO + Lewica + Kon
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
2.1
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Kantar pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 2.1 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
2.14
|
Parliamentary Election in Polen 2023 | 6/11 |
How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?
We compare pre-election polls from the institutes with the actual election results. This involves calculating the average deviation of party values and deriving an overall average. All parties with an election result of 3% or higher are included in the calculation.