Latest voting intention survey by Social Changes for Poland
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Poland conducted by Social Changes, the parties received the following results: ZP 33%, KO 32%, PL2050/PSL 14%, Kon 9%, Lewica 9% and BS 2%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1081 people during the period 13.11.2023 - 13.11.2023. The survey was commissioned by wpolityce.pl.
1081 participants
10.11.2023 - 13.11.2023
Social Changes
wpolityce.pl
Development since the last election on 15.10.2023
ZP
33.0
-3.0
KO
32.0
+4.0
PL2050/PSL
14.0
+2.0
Kon
9.0
-2.0
Lewica
9.0
-1.0
BS
2.0
±0.0
Others
1.0
±0.0
This poll is more than 3 months old.
Seats in parliament
460
Majority requires 231 seats
Lewica
42
9.1%
PL2050/PSL
66
14.3%
KO
152
33%
ZP
157
34.1%
Kon
43
9.3%
ZP + KO
ZP + PL2050/PSL + Kon
ZP + PL2050/PSL + Lewica
KO + PL2050/PSL + Kon
KO + PL2050/PSL + Lewica
ZP + Kon + Lewica
KO + Kon + Lewica
57
PolitPro Score
Social Changes achieves a score of 57/100 in the PolitPro Score.
What is the PolitPro Score?
The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
2.5
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Social Changes pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 2.5 percentage points.
Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from the Results of Recent Elections
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
2.18
|
Parliamentary Election in Polen 2023 | 7/11 |
|
2.78
|
Parliamentary Election in Polen 2019 | 9/9 |
How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?
The accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls matched the actual election results.