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CBOS

March 9, 2026 - March 11, 2026

1000 respondents

Next Poland's General Election: 2027

The next Poland's General Election is expected in 2027.

Poland's Incumbent Government Lacks Majority

Based on the CBOS projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 40.4% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from CBOS?

According to the latest national poll in Poland by CBOS, KO leads with 33.4%. They are followed by PiS: 24.1%, Kon: 12.7%, KKP: 12.6%, Razem: 4.3%, Lewica: 4%, PSL: 3.7% and PL2050: 0.8%. Other parties secure 3.9% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Poland

Poll results, coalitions, and election data

All Election Polls

Latest surveys from all institutes and historical data

What do the parties stand for?

Information, comparisons, and data on parties in Poland

Quality Check: How Reliable is the CBOS Projection?

PolitPro Score

CBOS achieved a PolitPro Score of 54 out of 100.

Election Accuracy

On average, CBOS's figures deviate by percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Overestimates KKP

In 80% of polls, CBOS rated KKP higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Overestimates PiS

In 54% of polls, CBOS rated PiS higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Underestimates KO

In 36% of polls, CBOS rated KO lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Underestimates Kon

In 36% of polls, CBOS rated Kon lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Underestimates Lewica

In 85% of polls, CBOS rated Lewica lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Underestimates PiS

In 25% of polls, CBOS rated PiS lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Underestimates PSL

In 29% of polls, CBOS rated PSL lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Underestimates Razem

In 22% of polls, CBOS rated Razem lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

CBOS at a Glance

Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias

Which institutes are the most reliable?

Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

460

Majority requires 231 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the election in Poland is 5%.

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: CBOS)

According to CBOS, 4 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter Poland's parliament: KO with 186 representatives, PiS with 134 representatives, Kon with 70 representatives and KKP with 70 representatives.

The Electoral System in Poland

Poland's parliament operates as a bicameral legislature, comprising the Sejm (lower house) with 460 deputies and the Senate (upper house) with 100 senators. Sejm deputies are elected through proportional representation across 41 constituencies. Voters cast ballots for specific candidates on party lists, a mechanism that can influence the internal ranking of those lists. The Senate, conversely, is chosen via a majoritarian system in 100 single-member constituencies (first-past-the-post). These distinct electoral systems frequently result in differing political majorities between the two chambers.

Electoral Thresholds

To gain seats in the Sejm, Poland employs a nationwide electoral threshold. Individual parties must secure at least 5% of the vote, while electoral alliances (coalitions) face an 8% hurdle. This regulation aims to prevent excessive parliamentary fragmentation. A crucial exception applies to recognized national minorities (such as the German minority), who are exempt from the 5% threshold, ensuring their parliamentary representation even with lower vote shares. There is no percentage threshold for Senate elections, as a simple majority in the constituency determines the winner.

Government Formation and Traditions

Government formation in Poland typically relies on coalitions, as the Sejm's electoral system rarely grants an absolute majority to a single party. Following an election, the President appoints a Prime Minister, usually from the strongest parliamentary faction. The Prime Minister must then present their cabinet to the Sejm and win a vote of confidence (investiture) within 14 days. Should this attempt fail, the initiative for government formation shifts to the Sejm itself. Polish coalitions are often characterized by intense negotiations over policy details and ministerial appointments.

Coalition Calculator

Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

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