Latest Opinion Poll for Poland (Estymator, March 22, 2018)

March 21, 2018 - March 22, 2018

1011 respondents

Next General election in Poland: 2027

The next General election in Poland is expected in 2027.

Poland's Incumbent Government Lacks Majority

Based on the Estymator projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 5.4% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Estymator?

In the latest opinion poll for the election in Poland, conducted by Estymator on March 22, 2018, PiS leads with 46.8%. Following are PO: 25.7%, Kukiz’15: 7.9%, SLD: 6.8%, PSL: 5.1%, .Nowoczesna: 4.7%, Razem: 1.7% and KORWiN: 0.8%. Other parties secure 0.5% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Poland
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Estymator Projection?

54

PolitPro Score

Estymator achieved a PolitPro Score of 54 out of 100.

2.2

Election Accuracy

On average, Estymator's figures deviate by 2.2 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Estymator at a Glance
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Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

460
Majority requires 231 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the election in Poland is 5%.

PiS + PO
Centre-Right
73.5%
PiS + Kukiz’15
Right
53.3%
PiS + PSL
Right
51.1%
PO + SLD + PSL
Centre-Left
46.7%
PiS
Right
44.6%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: IBRiS)

According to IBRiS, 5 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter Poland's parliament: PiS with 205 representatives, PO with 133 representatives, SLD with 52 representatives, Kukiz’15 with 40 representatives and PSL with 30 representatives.

The Electoral System in Poland

Poland's parliament operates as a bicameral legislature, comprising the Sejm (lower house) with 460 deputies and the Senate (upper house) with 100 senators. Sejm deputies are elected through proportional representation across 41 constituencies. Voters cast ballots for specific candidates on party lists, a mechanism that can influence the internal ranking of those lists. The Senate, conversely, is chosen via a majoritarian system in 100 single-member constituencies (first-past-the-post). These distinct electoral systems frequently result in differing political majorities between the two chambers.

Electoral Thresholds

To gain seats in the Sejm, Poland employs a nationwide electoral threshold. Individual parties must secure at least 5% of the vote, while electoral alliances (coalitions) face an 8% hurdle. This regulation aims to prevent excessive parliamentary fragmentation. A crucial exception applies to recognized national minorities (such as the German minority), who are exempt from the 5% threshold, ensuring their parliamentary representation even with lower vote shares. There is no percentage threshold for Senate elections, as a simple majority in the constituency determines the winner.

Government Formation and Traditions

Government formation in Poland typically relies on coalitions, as the Sejm's electoral system rarely grants an absolute majority to a single party. Following an election, the President appoints a Prime Minister, usually from the strongest parliamentary faction. The Prime Minister must then present their cabinet to the Sejm and win a vote of confidence (investiture) within 14 days. Should this attempt fail, the initiative for government formation shifts to the Sejm itself. Polish coalitions are often characterized by intense negotiations over policy details and ministerial appointments.

Coalition Calculator
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Data Sources and Methodology

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