These symbols illustrate a party's political orientation to facilitate quick comparison. These categories offer a broad classification; for detailed policy positions, please visit the individual party pages.

Far-Left

Left

Centre-Left

Centre

Transversal

Unknown

Centre-Right

Right

Far-Right

Liberal

Green

Regional

Animal Welfare

Satire

IBRiS

Onet

September 22, 2018 - September 23, 2018

1100 respondents

Next General election in Poland: 2027

The next General election in Poland is expected in 2027.

Poland's Incumbent Government Lacks Majority

Based on the IBRiS projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 7.6% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from IBRiS?

In the latest opinion poll for the election in Poland, conducted by IBRiS on September 23, 2018, PiS leads with 33.2%. Following are PO: 23.1%, Kukiz’15: 10%, SLD: 8.7%, PSL: 6.3%, KORWiN: 3.3%, Razem: 2.4% and .Nowoczesna: 2.2%. Other parties secure 10.8% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Poland

Poll results, coalitions, and election data

All Election Polls

Latest surveys from all institutes and historical data

What do the parties stand for?

Information, comparisons, and data on parties in Poland

Quality Check: How Reliable is the IBRiS Projection?

PolitPro Score

IBRiS achieved a PolitPro Score of 63 out of 100.

2.2

Election Accuracy

On average, IBRiS's figures deviate by 2.2 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Overestimates KO

In 33% of polls, IBRiS rated KO higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Overestimates Lewica

In 35% of polls, IBRiS rated Lewica higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Overestimates PiS

In 53% of polls, IBRiS rated PiS higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Overestimates PSL

In 55% of polls, IBRiS rated PSL higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Underestimates KKP

In 22% of polls, IBRiS rated KKP lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Underestimates KO

In 26% of polls, IBRiS rated KO lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Underestimates Kon

In 30% of polls, IBRiS rated Kon lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Underestimates PiS

In 23% of polls, IBRiS rated PiS lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Underestimates PL2050

In 39% of polls, IBRiS rated PL2050 lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

IBRiS at a Glance

Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias

Which institutes are the most reliable?

Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

460

Majority requires 231 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the election in Poland is 5%.

PiS

Right

50.2%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Kantar Millward Brown)

According to Kantar Millward Brown, 5 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter Poland's parliament: PiS with 231 representatives, PO with 127 representatives, .Nowoczesna with 42 representatives, KORWiN with 30 representatives and SLD with 30 representatives.

The Electoral System in Poland

Poland's parliament operates as a bicameral legislature, comprising the Sejm (lower house) with 460 deputies and the Senate (upper house) with 100 senators. Sejm deputies are elected through proportional representation across 41 constituencies. Voters cast ballots for specific candidates on party lists, a mechanism that can influence the internal ranking of those lists. The Senate, conversely, is chosen via a majoritarian system in 100 single-member constituencies (first-past-the-post). These distinct electoral systems frequently result in differing political majorities between the two chambers.

Electoral Thresholds

To gain seats in the Sejm, Poland employs a nationwide electoral threshold. Individual parties must secure at least 5% of the vote, while electoral alliances (coalitions) face an 8% hurdle. This regulation aims to prevent excessive parliamentary fragmentation. A crucial exception applies to recognized national minorities (such as the German minority), who are exempt from the 5% threshold, ensuring their parliamentary representation even with lower vote shares. There is no percentage threshold for Senate elections, as a simple majority in the constituency determines the winner.

Government Formation and Traditions

Government formation in Poland typically relies on coalitions, as the Sejm's electoral system rarely grants an absolute majority to a single party. Following an election, the President appoints a Prime Minister, usually from the strongest parliamentary faction. The Prime Minister must then present their cabinet to the Sejm and win a vote of confidence (investiture) within 14 days. Should this attempt fail, the initiative for government formation shifts to the Sejm itself. Polish coalitions are often characterized by intense negotiations over policy details and ministerial appointments.

Coalition Calculator

Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

PolitPro

PolitPro bridges the gap between scientific research and current polling. We supplement leading datasets with our own proprietary research and algorithms to make complex political contexts tangible and accessible. Powered by AI.

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