These symbols illustrate a party's political orientation to facilitate quick comparison. These categories offer a broad classification; for detailed policy positions, please visit the individual party pages.

Far-Left

Left

Centre-Left

Centre

Big-tent party

Unknown

Centre-Right

Right

Far-Right

Liberal

Green

Regional

Animal Welfare

Satire

IBRiS

Radio ZET

January 10, 2020 - January 11, 2020

1100 respondents

Next Poland's General Election: 2027

The next Poland's General Election is expected in 2027.

Poland's Government Majority Remains Uncertain

Based on the IBRiS projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 51.1% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from IBRiS?

According to the latest national poll in Poland by IBRiS, ZP leads with 43%. They are followed by KO: 31%, Lewica: 14.9%, Kon: 5.8% and KP: 5.4%. Other parties secure 0% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Poland

Poll results, coalitions, and election data

All Election Polls

Latest surveys from all institutes and historical data

What do the parties stand for?

Information, comparisons, and data on parties in Poland

Quality Check: How Reliable is the IBRiS Projection?

PolitPro Score

IBRiS achieved a PolitPro Score of 66 out of 100.

2.2

Election Accuracy

On average, IBRiS's figures deviate by 2.2 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Overestimates KO

In 30% of polls, IBRiS rated KO higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Overestimates Kon

In 20% of polls, IBRiS rated Kon higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Overestimates Lewica

In 31% of polls, IBRiS rated Lewica higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Overestimates PiS

In 39% of polls, IBRiS rated PiS higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Overestimates PSL

In 53% of polls, IBRiS rated PSL higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Underestimates KO

In 26% of polls, IBRiS rated KO lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Underestimates Kon

In 28% of polls, IBRiS rated Kon lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Underestimates PiS

In 21% of polls, IBRiS rated PiS lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Underestimates PL2050

In 38% of polls, IBRiS rated PL2050 lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

IBRiS at a Glance

Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias

Which institutes are the most reliable?

Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

460

Majority requires 231 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the election in Poland is 5%.

PolitPro Analysis

Likelihood of an Absolute Majority

KO

??%
Lewica

??%

Likelihood of Winning the Election

KO

??%
Lewica

??%

Likelihood of Crossing the Electoral Threshold

Lewica

??%

How Does the PolitPro Analysis Work?

Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.

Unlock Analysis

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: IBRiS)

According to IBRiS, 5 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter Poland's parliament: ZP with 199 representatives, KO with 143 representatives, Lewica with 68 representatives, Kon with 26 representatives and KP with 24 representatives.

The Electoral System in Poland

Poland's parliament operates as a bicameral legislature, comprising the Sejm (lower house) with 460 deputies and the Senate (upper house) with 100 senators. Sejm deputies are elected through proportional representation across 41 constituencies. Voters cast ballots for specific candidates on party lists, a mechanism that can influence the internal ranking of those lists. The Senate, conversely, is chosen via a majoritarian system in 100 single-member constituencies (first-past-the-post). These distinct electoral systems frequently result in differing political majorities between the two chambers.

Electoral Thresholds

To gain seats in the Sejm, Poland employs a nationwide electoral threshold. Individual parties must secure at least 5% of the vote, while electoral alliances (coalitions) face an 8% hurdle. This regulation aims to prevent excessive parliamentary fragmentation. A crucial exception applies to recognized national minorities (such as the German minority), who are exempt from the 5% threshold, ensuring their parliamentary representation even with lower vote shares. There is no percentage threshold for Senate elections, as a simple majority in the constituency determines the winner.

Government Formation and Traditions

Government formation in Poland typically relies on coalitions, as the Sejm's electoral system rarely grants an absolute majority to a single party. Following an election, the President appoints a Prime Minister, usually from the strongest parliamentary faction. The Prime Minister must then present their cabinet to the Sejm and win a vote of confidence (investiture) within 14 days. Should this attempt fail, the initiative for government formation shifts to the Sejm itself. Polish coalitions are often characterized by intense negotiations over policy details and ministerial appointments.

Coalition Calculator

Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

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