Latest Opinion Poll for Poland (IBRiS, May 23, 2020)

May 22, 2020 - May 23, 2020

1100 respondents

Next Poland's General Election: 2027

The next Poland's General Election is expected in 2027.

Poland's Government Majority Remains Uncertain

Based on the IBRiS projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 48.7% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from IBRiS?

In the latest opinion poll for the election in Poland, conducted by IBRiS on May 23, 2020, ZP leads with 40.3%. Following are KO: 23.4%, KP: 13.4%, Lewica: 8.1% and Kon: 6.6%. Other parties secure 8.2% of the votes.

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Quality Check: How Reliable is the IBRiS Projection?

65

PolitPro Score

IBRiS achieved a PolitPro Score of 65 out of 100.

2.2

Election Accuracy

On average, IBRiS's figures deviate by 2.2 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

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Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

460
Majority requires 231 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the election in Poland is 5%.

ZP + KO
Centre-Right
69.6%
ZP + Lewica
Right
52.8%
ZP + Kon
Right
51.3%
ZP
Right
44.1%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: IBRiS)

According to IBRiS, 5 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter Poland's parliament: ZP with 203 representatives, KO with 117 representatives, KP with 67 representatives, Lewica with 40 representatives and Kon with 33 representatives.

The Electoral System in Poland

Poland's parliament operates as a bicameral legislature, comprising the Sejm (lower house) with 460 deputies and the Senate (upper house) with 100 senators. Sejm deputies are elected through proportional representation across 41 constituencies. Voters cast ballots for specific candidates on party lists, a mechanism that can influence the internal ranking of those lists. The Senate, conversely, is chosen via a majoritarian system in 100 single-member constituencies (first-past-the-post). These distinct electoral systems frequently result in differing political majorities between the two chambers.

Electoral Thresholds

To gain seats in the Sejm, Poland employs a nationwide electoral threshold. Individual parties must secure at least 5% of the vote, while electoral alliances (coalitions) face an 8% hurdle. This regulation aims to prevent excessive parliamentary fragmentation. A crucial exception applies to recognized national minorities (such as the German minority), who are exempt from the 5% threshold, ensuring their parliamentary representation even with lower vote shares. There is no percentage threshold for Senate elections, as a simple majority in the constituency determines the winner.

Government Formation and Traditions

Government formation in Poland typically relies on coalitions, as the Sejm's electoral system rarely grants an absolute majority to a single party. Following an election, the President appoints a Prime Minister, usually from the strongest parliamentary faction. The Prime Minister must then present their cabinet to the Sejm and win a vote of confidence (investiture) within 14 days. Should this attempt fail, the initiative for government formation shifts to the Sejm itself. Polish coalitions are often characterized by intense negotiations over policy details and ministerial appointments.

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Data Sources and Methodology

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