Latest Opinion Poll for Poland (Kantar MB, February 12, 2020)

February 7, 2020 - February 12, 2020

969 respondents

Next Poland's General Election: 2027

The next Poland's General Election is expected in 2027.

Poland's Government Majority Remains Uncertain

Based on the Kantar MB projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 51.1% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Kantar MB?

In the latest opinion poll for the election in Poland, conducted by Kantar MB on February 12, 2020, ZP leads with 41%. Following are KO: 26%, Lewica: 10%, KP: 7% and Kon: 4%. Other parties secure 12% of the votes.

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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Kantar MB Projection?

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PolitPro Score

Kantar MB achieved a PolitPro Score of ? out of 100.

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Election Accuracy

On average, Kantar MB's figures deviate by percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Kantar MB at a Glance
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Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

460
Majority requires 231 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the election in Poland is 5%.

ZP + KO
Centre-Right
80.0%
ZP + Lewica
Right
60.7%
ZP
Right
48.9%
KO + Lewica
Left
42.8%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Kantar MB)

According to Kantar MB, 4 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter Poland's parliament: ZP with 225 representatives, KO with 143 representatives, Lewica with 54 representatives and KP with 38 representatives.

The Electoral System in Poland

Poland's parliament operates as a bicameral legislature, comprising the Sejm (lower house) with 460 deputies and the Senate (upper house) with 100 senators. Sejm deputies are elected through proportional representation across 41 constituencies. Voters cast ballots for specific candidates on party lists, a mechanism that can influence the internal ranking of those lists. The Senate, conversely, is chosen via a majoritarian system in 100 single-member constituencies (first-past-the-post). These distinct electoral systems frequently result in differing political majorities between the two chambers.

Electoral Thresholds

To gain seats in the Sejm, Poland employs a nationwide electoral threshold. Individual parties must secure at least 5% of the vote, while electoral alliances (coalitions) face an 8% hurdle. This regulation aims to prevent excessive parliamentary fragmentation. A crucial exception applies to recognized national minorities (such as the German minority), who are exempt from the 5% threshold, ensuring their parliamentary representation even with lower vote shares. There is no percentage threshold for Senate elections, as a simple majority in the constituency determines the winner.

Government Formation and Traditions

Government formation in Poland typically relies on coalitions, as the Sejm's electoral system rarely grants an absolute majority to a single party. Following an election, the President appoints a Prime Minister, usually from the strongest parliamentary faction. The Prime Minister must then present their cabinet to the Sejm and win a vote of confidence (investiture) within 14 days. Should this attempt fail, the initiative for government formation shifts to the Sejm itself. Polish coalitions are often characterized by intense negotiations over policy details and ministerial appointments.

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Data Sources and Methodology

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