Latest Opinion Poll for Poland (Kantar Public, June 10, 2020)

June 5, 2020 - June 10, 2020

986 respondents

Next Poland's General Election: 2027

The next Poland's General Election is expected in 2027.

Poland's Government Majority Remains Uncertain

Based on the Kantar Public projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 50.4% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Kantar Public?

In the latest opinion poll for the election in Poland, conducted by Kantar Public on June 10, 2020, ZP leads with 37%. Following are KO: 31%, Kon: 7%, KP: 7% and Lewica: 7%. Other parties secure 11% of the votes.

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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Kantar Public Projection?

59

PolitPro Score

Kantar Public achieved a PolitPro Score of 59 out of 100.

1.4

Election Accuracy

On average, Kantar Public's figures deviate by 1.4 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

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Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

460
Majority requires 231 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the election in Poland is 5%.

ZP + KO
Centre-Right
76.5%
ZP + Lewica + Kon
Right
57.4%
KO + Lewica + Kon
Centre-Left
50.4%
ZP + Kon
Right
49.6%
ZP + Lewica
Right
49.6%
KO + Lewica
Centre-Left
42.6%
KO + Kon
Centre
42.6%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Kantar Public)

According to Kantar Public, 5 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter Poland's parliament: ZP with 192 representatives, KO with 160 representatives, Kon with 36 representatives, KP with 36 representatives and Lewica with 36 representatives.

The Electoral System in Poland

Poland's parliament operates as a bicameral legislature, comprising the Sejm (lower house) with 460 deputies and the Senate (upper house) with 100 senators. Sejm deputies are elected through proportional representation across 41 constituencies. Voters cast ballots for specific candidates on party lists, a mechanism that can influence the internal ranking of those lists. The Senate, conversely, is chosen via a majoritarian system in 100 single-member constituencies (first-past-the-post). These distinct electoral systems frequently result in differing political majorities between the two chambers.

Electoral Thresholds

To gain seats in the Sejm, Poland employs a nationwide electoral threshold. Individual parties must secure at least 5% of the vote, while electoral alliances (coalitions) face an 8% hurdle. This regulation aims to prevent excessive parliamentary fragmentation. A crucial exception applies to recognized national minorities (such as the German minority), who are exempt from the 5% threshold, ensuring their parliamentary representation even with lower vote shares. There is no percentage threshold for Senate elections, as a simple majority in the constituency determines the winner.

Government Formation and Traditions

Government formation in Poland typically relies on coalitions, as the Sejm's electoral system rarely grants an absolute majority to a single party. Following an election, the President appoints a Prime Minister, usually from the strongest parliamentary faction. The Prime Minister must then present their cabinet to the Sejm and win a vote of confidence (investiture) within 14 days. Should this attempt fail, the initiative for government formation shifts to the Sejm itself. Polish coalitions are often characterized by intense negotiations over policy details and ministerial appointments.

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Data Sources and Methodology

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