Latest Opinion Poll for Poland (PGB Opinium, July 13, 2023)

July 11, 2023 - July 13, 2023

1000 respondents

Next Poland's General Election: 2027

The next Poland's General Election is expected in 2027.

Poland's Incumbent Government Lacks Majority

Based on the PGB Opinium projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 47.8% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from PGB Opinium?

In the latest opinion poll for the election in Poland, conducted by PGB Opinium on July 13, 2023, PiS leads with 34.6%. Following are KO: 29%, Kon: 16.9%, PL2050/PSL: 9.8%, Lewica: 8.6% and BS: 0.5%. Other parties secure 0.6% of the votes.

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Quality Check: How Reliable is the PGB Opinium Projection?

61

PolitPro Score

PGB Opinium achieved a PolitPro Score of 61 out of 100.

1.7

Election Accuracy

On average, PGB Opinium's figures deviate by 1.7 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

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Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

460
Majority requires 231 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the election in Poland is 5%.

PiS + KO
Centre-Right
64.3%
KO + Kon + PL2050/PSL
Centre-Right
56.3%
KO + Kon + Lewica
Centre
55.2%
PiS + PL2050/PSL + Lewica
Centre-Right
53.5%
PiS + Kon
Right
52.2%
KO + PL2050/PSL + Lewica
Centre-Left
47.8%
KO + Kon
Centre
46.5%
PiS + PL2050/PSL
Right
44.8%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: PGB Opinium)

According to PGB Opinium, 5 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter Poland's parliament: PiS with 161 representatives, KO with 135 representatives, Kon with 79 representatives, PL2050/PSL with 45 representatives and Lewica with 40 representatives.

The Electoral System in Poland

Poland's parliament operates as a bicameral legislature, comprising the Sejm (lower house) with 460 deputies and the Senate (upper house) with 100 senators. Sejm deputies are elected through proportional representation across 41 constituencies. Voters cast ballots for specific candidates on party lists, a mechanism that can influence the internal ranking of those lists. The Senate, conversely, is chosen via a majoritarian system in 100 single-member constituencies (first-past-the-post). These distinct electoral systems frequently result in differing political majorities between the two chambers.

Electoral Thresholds

To gain seats in the Sejm, Poland employs a nationwide electoral threshold. Individual parties must secure at least 5% of the vote, while electoral alliances (coalitions) face an 8% hurdle. This regulation aims to prevent excessive parliamentary fragmentation. A crucial exception applies to recognized national minorities (such as the German minority), who are exempt from the 5% threshold, ensuring their parliamentary representation even with lower vote shares. There is no percentage threshold for Senate elections, as a simple majority in the constituency determines the winner.

Government Formation and Traditions

Government formation in Poland typically relies on coalitions, as the Sejm's electoral system rarely grants an absolute majority to a single party. Following an election, the President appoints a Prime Minister, usually from the strongest parliamentary faction. The Prime Minister must then present their cabinet to the Sejm and win a vote of confidence (investiture) within 14 days. Should this attempt fail, the initiative for government formation shifts to the Sejm itself. Polish coalitions are often characterized by intense negotiations over policy details and ministerial appointments.

Coalition Calculator
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Data Sources and Methodology

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