Latest Opinion Poll for Poland (Social Changes, August 10, 2020)

August 7, 2020 - August 10, 2020

1078 respondents

Next General election in Poland: 2027

The next General election in Poland is expected in 2027.

Poland's Incumbent Government Lacks Majority

Based on the Social Changes projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 32.0% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Social Changes?

In the latest opinion poll for the election in Poland, conducted by Social Changes on August 10, 2020, PiS leads with 43%. Following are KO: 29%, Razem: 11%, Kon: 8% and KP: 4%. Other parties secure 5% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Poland
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Social Changes Projection?

54

PolitPro Score

Social Changes achieved a PolitPro Score of 54 out of 100.

2.5

Election Accuracy

On average, Social Changes's figures deviate by 2.5 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Social Changes at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
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Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

460
Majority requires 231 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the election in Poland is 5%.

PiS + PO
Centre-Right
75.9%
PiS + Kukiz’15
Right
52.4%
PiS + PSL
Right
50.9%
PiS
Right
44.3%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Estymator)

According to Estymator, 5 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter Poland's parliament: PiS with 204 representatives, PO with 145 representatives, Wiosna with 44 representatives, Kukiz’15 with 37 representatives and PSL with 30 representatives.

The Electoral System in Poland

Poland's parliament operates as a bicameral legislature, comprising the Sejm (lower house) with 460 deputies and the Senate (upper house) with 100 senators. Sejm deputies are elected through proportional representation across 41 constituencies. Voters cast ballots for specific candidates on party lists, a mechanism that can influence the internal ranking of those lists. The Senate, conversely, is chosen via a majoritarian system in 100 single-member constituencies (first-past-the-post). These distinct electoral systems frequently result in differing political majorities between the two chambers.

Electoral Thresholds

To gain seats in the Sejm, Poland employs a nationwide electoral threshold. Individual parties must secure at least 5% of the vote, while electoral alliances (coalitions) face an 8% hurdle. This regulation aims to prevent excessive parliamentary fragmentation. A crucial exception applies to recognized national minorities (such as the German minority), who are exempt from the 5% threshold, ensuring their parliamentary representation even with lower vote shares. There is no percentage threshold for Senate elections, as a simple majority in the constituency determines the winner.

Government Formation and Traditions

Government formation in Poland typically relies on coalitions, as the Sejm's electoral system rarely grants an absolute majority to a single party. Following an election, the President appoints a Prime Minister, usually from the strongest parliamentary faction. The Prime Minister must then present their cabinet to the Sejm and win a vote of confidence (investiture) within 14 days. Should this attempt fail, the initiative for government formation shifts to the Sejm itself. Polish coalitions are often characterized by intense negotiations over policy details and ministerial appointments.

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Data Sources and Methodology

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