Poland: Opinion poll by Social Changes on 12/21/2025

The Polish Parliament is bicameral, consisting of the Sejm (lower house) with 460 members and the Senate (upper house) with 100 members. Sejm deputies are elected via proportional representation in 41 multi-member districts. Voters cast their ballot for a specific candidate on a party list, which can alter the final ranking of that list. In contrast, the Senate is elected through a first-past-the-post majority system in 100 single-member constituencies. These differing systems often result in distinct political compositions between the two houses.

To enter the Sejm, political entities must clear a national electoral threshold: 5% for individual parties and 8% for coalitions. This measure is intended to prevent excessive parliamentary fragmentation. A significant exception exists for recognized national minorities (such as the German minority), who are exempt from the 5% requirement, ensuring their representation even with smaller vote shares. The Senate elections do not have a percentage threshold, as seats are awarded to the candidate who receives the most votes in each district.

Government formation in Poland usually requires coalitions, as the proportional system for the Sejm rarely grants a single party an absolute majority. After an election, the President appoints a Prime Minister, typically from the largest faction, who must then present their cabinet and win a vote of confidence in the Sejm within 14 days. If this fails, the constitutional power to nominate a government shifts to the Sejm itself. Polish coalitions often involve rigorous negotiations regarding policy programs and the distribution of ministerial portfolios.

This overview shows all parties that, based on current polling, have a realistic chance of entering parliament in Poland or significantly shape the political debate. Classifying their political orientation is essential for understanding bloc formation and the mathematically possible majorities in the next parliament.