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Latest Opinion Poll for Poland (Social Changes, April 20, 2026)

April 17, 2026 - April 20, 2026

1090 respondents

Next Poland's General Election: 2027

The next Poland's General Election is expected in 2027.

Poland's Incumbent Government Lacks Majority

Based on the Social Changes projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 42.6% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Social Changes?

According to the latest national poll in Poland by Social Changes, KO leads with 33%. They are followed by PiS: 28%, Kon: 12%, KKP: 9%, Lewica: 7%, Razem: 5%, PL2050: 2% and PSL: 2%. Other parties secure 2% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Poland
Poll results, coalitions, and election data
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Information, comparisons, and data on parties in Poland
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Social Changes Projection?

55

PolitPro Score

Social Changes achieved a PolitPro Score of 55 out of 100.

2.5

Election Accuracy

On average, Social Changes's figures deviate by 2.5 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Social Changes at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the election in Poland is 5%.

PolitPro Analysis
Likelihood of an Absolute Majority
  • KO
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  • PiS
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  • Kon
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Likelihood of Winning the Election
  • KO
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  • PiS
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  • Kon
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Likelihood of Crossing the Electoral Threshold
  • KKP
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  • Lewica
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  • Razem
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  • PL2050
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  • PSL
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How Does the PolitPro Analysis Work?

Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.

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Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Social Changes)

According to Social Changes, 6 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter Poland's parliament: KO with 162 representatives, PiS with 137 representatives, Kon with 59 representatives, KKP with 44 representatives, Lewica with 34 representatives and Razem with 24 representatives.

The Electoral System in Poland

Poland's parliament operates as a bicameral legislature, comprising the Sejm (lower house) with 460 deputies and the Senate (upper house) with 100 senators. Sejm deputies are elected through proportional representation across 41 constituencies. Voters cast ballots for specific candidates on party lists, a mechanism that can influence the internal ranking of those lists. The Senate, conversely, is chosen via a majoritarian system in 100 single-member constituencies (first-past-the-post). These distinct electoral systems frequently result in differing political majorities between the two chambers.

Electoral Thresholds

To gain seats in the Sejm, Poland employs a nationwide electoral threshold. Individual parties must secure at least 5% of the vote, while electoral alliances (coalitions) face an 8% hurdle. This regulation aims to prevent excessive parliamentary fragmentation. A crucial exception applies to recognized national minorities (such as the German minority), who are exempt from the 5% threshold, ensuring their parliamentary representation even with lower vote shares. There is no percentage threshold for Senate elections, as a simple majority in the constituency determines the winner.

Government Formation and Traditions

Government formation in Poland typically relies on coalitions, as the Sejm's electoral system rarely grants an absolute majority to a single party. Following an election, the President appoints a Prime Minister, usually from the strongest parliamentary faction. The Prime Minister must then present their cabinet to the Sejm and win a vote of confidence (investiture) within 14 days. Should this attempt fail, the initiative for government formation shifts to the Sejm itself. Polish coalitions are often characterized by intense negotiations over policy details and ministerial appointments.

Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

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