PolitPro

Poland United Surveys: election poll for the Parliamentary election in Poland from 9 August 2026

Strongest Force
KO
12.2 points ahead of PiS
Government Majority
No Majority
193 of 460 seats in the Election Trend
Election year
2027
estimated

Voting intention poll for the Parliamentary election in Poland

The bars show the results of this single poll; the chips show the change compared to the last election. United Surveys: single poll for the Parliamentary election in Poland, fieldwork ended 9 August 2026.

Changes since the last election on 15 October 2023

KO
32.0
+1.3
PiS
19.8
+19.8
Kon
11.8
+4.6
KKP
10.7
+10.7
8.0
-0.6
R+
7.6
+7.6
PSL
5.4
+5.4
3.9
+3.9
0.7
+0.7
Other
0.1
Institute
United Surveys
Survey Period
07/08/2026 – 09/08/2026
Respondents
1,000
Current government in Poland falls short of a majority

Based on this poll, the parties currently in government would win 42.0% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading according to the poll by United Surveys?

A recent voting intention poll for Poland by United Surveys indicates KO leads with 32%, followed by PiS with 19.8%, Kon with 11.8%, KKP with 10.7%, Lewica with 8%, Rozwój Plus with 7.6%, PSL with 5.4%, Razem with 3.9% and PL2050 with 0.7%. Other parties achieve 0.1% of the votes.

What do the symbols mean?

To make parties comparable, we indicate their political orientation with symbols. These categories provide a rough classification for a quick overview. More detailed information on political stances can be found on the parties' subpages.

  • Far-Left
  • Left
  • Centre-Left
  • Center
  • Transversal
  • Unknown
  • Centre-Right
  • Right
  • Far-Right
  • Liberal
  • Environment & Climate
  • Regional
  • Animal Welfare
  • Satire

Seat projection based on this poll

United Surveys: how reliable is the projection?

49 PolitPro Score Rank 10 of 13 in Poland
Score from 0 to 100 Avg. all polling institutes: 52.2
Avg. deviation in elections
3.3 pp

2 election comparisons

Recorded polls
145

Last on 6 September 2026

Deviations from the Election Trend

Party often overestimated Party often underestimated

What is the PolitPro Score for polling institutes?

In the PolitPro Score for polling institutes, we assess the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and their deviation from the Election Trend. Significant deviations in party values compared to the Election Trend lead to deductions, as they can indicate favoritism or disadvantage for parties. The score has a maximum value of 100.

Coalition calculator: majorities based on this poll

0
231
0 460
Majority 231

Parties

Select parties to test coalitions.

Scenarios: What if...?

Select all parties near the electoral threshold that should enter parliament. electoral threshold at 5%.

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PolitPro Analysis

Probability of an Absolute Majority

  1. KO
    <1%
  2. PiS
    0%
  3. Kon
    0%

Probability of Election Victory

  1. KO
    100%
  2. PiS
    <1%
  3. Kon
    0%
  4. KKP
    <1%
  5. R+
    <1%
  6. Razem
    <1%

Probability of Entering Parliament

  1. Lewica
    97%
  2. R+
    96%
  3. PSL
    63%
  4. Razem
    16%
  5. PL2050
    <1%

How does the PolitPro Analysis work?

Election polls are not predictions, but snapshots with statistical fluctuations. To obtain a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we include typical voter migration and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from small shifts within camps to political surprises – to determine the actual chances of success for parties and coalitions.

United Surveys: Projected composition of parliament

Based on this poll, 7 parties would clear the electoral threshold and enter the parliament of Poland: KO with 155 seats, PiS with 96 seats, Kon with 57 seats, KKP with 52 seats, Lewica with 38 seats, Rozwój Plus with 36 seats and PSL with 26 seats.

Understanding Poland's Electoral System

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Electoral Threshold and Hurdles

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Government formation and coalition traditions

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