Latest Election Polls by United Surveys

About United Surveys

63

PolitPro Score

United Surveys achieved a PolitPro Score of 63 out of 100.

2.2

Election Accuracy

On average, United Surveys's figures deviate by 2.2 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Party Analysis: Statistical Deviations by United Surveys

Historical Polls vs. Election Trend (in %)

Lower
Consistent
Higher
KKP
Far-Right
7
59
34
KO
Big-tent party
20
56
24
Kon
Right
37
48
15
Lewica
Left
4
63
33
PiS
Conservative
27
45
27
PL2050
Centre
36
43
21
PSL
Agrarian
0
37
63
Razem
Social Democratic
20
75
5

How is the data calculated?

The PolitPro Election Trend serves as the benchmark, using a time-weighted average of all current surveys. A poll value is flagged if it deviates by more than one percentage point from this trend.

Performance Track Record: Historical Accuracy of United Surveys

2.2

Election Accuracy

On average, United Surveys's figures deviate by 2.2 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from Actual Results (Historical)

How is election accuracy calculated?

Accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls aligned with actual election results. We compare final surveys from various institutes with official outcomes. To do this, we calculate the average deviation across all parties that received at least 3% of the vote. Most election polls have a standard margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. We categorize average deviations as follows: up to 1 percentage point is "very good" (green); up to 2 points is "good" (yellow); up to 3 points is "acceptable" (orange), though this may indicate significant outliers for specific parties. Deviations exceeding 3 percentage points suggest a lack of predictive power and are rated "poor" (red).

Data Sources and Methodology

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