Poland
Election trend
Parties

Poland: Poll by Social Changes from 18.01.2021

Polling data

ZP
30.0
+30.0
KO
22.0
-1.0
PL2050
22.0
±0.0
Kon
10.0
+2.0
Lewica
10.0
+1.0
K'15
3.0
±0.0
PSL
2.0
±0.0
Sonst.
1.0
-32.0
Development since the last election on 15.10.2023
ZP
-5.4
KO
-8.7
PL2050
Kon
+2.8
Lewica
+1.4
K'15
PSL
Social Changes – 1097 respondents – 15.01.2021-18.01.2021
Next election: 2027
The next parliamentary election in Poland is expected to take place in 2027.
Institute often rates KO lower
In 45% of election polls Social Changes rates KO lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Kon higher
In 46% of election polls, Social Changes rates Kon higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates PL2050 lower
In 33% of election polls Social Changes rates PL2050 lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates PSL lower
In 52% of election polls Social Changes rates PSL lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates ZP higher
In 44% of election polls, Social Changes rates ZP higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Poland - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Poland from Social Changes shows the following results: ZP 30%, KO 22%, PL2050 22%, Kon 10%, Lewica 10%, Kukiz’15 3% and PSL 2%. If an election were held in Poland this Sunday, Kon might gain the most in voter favorability with +2.8 growth since the last election. KO, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-8.7) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Donald Tusk is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from KO, Lewica and PL2050/PSL. With 34.0% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Social Changes. For this purpose, 1097 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 3 days (15.01.2021 - 18.01.2021).

Coalition possibilities

460
Lewica
48
PL2050
108
KO
108
ZP
147
Kon
49
Majority requires 231 seats
KO + PL2050 + Kon
265
KO + PL2050 + Lewica
264
ZP + KO
255
ZP + PL2050
255
ZP + Kon + Lewica
244

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Poland was conducted by Social Changes. The survey took place between 15.01.2021 and 18.01.2021 among 1097 eligible voters. After this election poll would get ZP 30%, KO 22%, PL2050 22%, Kon 10%, Lewica 10%, Kukiz’15 3% and PSL 2%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.