Poland
Election trend
Parties

Poland: Poll by Social Changes from 22.03.2021

Polling data

PiS
29.0
-2.0
PL2050
24.0
-1.0
KO
18.0
±0.0
Kon
10.0
+1.0
Lewica
10.0
±0.0
K'15
4.0
+1.0
PSL
3.0
+1.0
Sonst.
2.0
±0.0
Development since the last election on 15.10.2023
PiS
PL2050
KO
-12.7
Kon
+2.8
Lewica
+1.4
K'15
PSL
Social Changes – 1085 respondents – 19.03.2021-22.03.2021
Next election: 2027
The next parliamentary election in Poland is expected to take place in 2027.
Institute often rates KO lower
In 45% of election polls Social Changes rates KO lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Kon higher
In 46% of election polls, Social Changes rates Kon higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates PiS lower
In 53% of election polls Social Changes rates PiS lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates PL2050 lower
In 33% of election polls Social Changes rates PL2050 lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates PSL lower
In 52% of election polls Social Changes rates PSL lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Poland - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Poland from Social Changes shows the following results: PiS 29%, PL2050 24%, KO 18%, Kon 10%, Lewica 10%, Kukiz’15 4% and PSL 3%. If an election were held in Poland this Sunday, Kon might gain the most in voter favorability with +2.8 growth since the last election. PiS, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (?) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Donald Tusk is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from KO, Lewica and PL2050/PSL. With 30.8% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Social Changes. For this purpose, 1085 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 3 days (19.03.2021 - 22.03.2021).

Coalition possibilities

460
Lewica
50
PL2050
122
KO
91
PiS
147
Kon
50
Majority requires 231 seats
PiS + PL2050
269
PL2050 + KO + Lewica
263
PL2050 + KO + Kon
263
PiS + Lewica + Kon
247
PiS + KO
238

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Poland was conducted by Social Changes. The survey took place between 19.03.2021 and 22.03.2021 among 1085 eligible voters. After this election poll would get PiS 29%, PL2050 24%, KO 18%, Kon 10%, Lewica 10%, Kukiz’15 4% and PSL 3%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.