Poland
Election trend
Parties

Poland: Poll by Estymator from 23.09.2022

Polling data

ZP
35.9
-1.1
KO
26.8
+0.7
PL2050
12.2
+0.4
Lewica
11.0
+1.1
PSL
6.5
-0.2
Kon
6.1
-0.5
K'15
1.3
-0.3
Sonst.
0.2
-0.1
Development since the last election on 15.10.2023
ZP
+0.5
KO
-3.9
PL2050
Lewica
+2.4
PSL
Kon
-1.1
K'15
Estymator – 1045 respondents – 22.09.2022-23.09.2022
Next election: 2027
The next parliamentary election in Poland is expected to take place in 2027.
Institute often rates KO lower
In 42% of election polls Estymator rates KO lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Lewica higher
In 50% of election polls, Estymator rates Lewica higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates PL2050 lower
In 67% of election polls Estymator rates PL2050 lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates PSL higher
In 61% of election polls, Estymator rates PSL higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates ZP higher
In 33% of election polls, Estymator rates ZP higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Poland - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Poland from Estymator shows the following results: ZP 35.9%, KO 26.8%, PL2050 12.2%, Lewica 11%, PSL 6.5%, Kon 6.1% and Kukiz’15 1.3%. If an election were held in Poland this Sunday, Lewica might gain the most in voter favorability with +2.4 growth since the last election. KO, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-3.9) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Donald Tusk is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from KO, Lewica and PL2050/PSL. With 38.4% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Estymator. For this purpose, 1045 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 1 days (22.09.2022 - 23.09.2022).

Coalition possibilities

460
Lewica
51
PL2050
57
KO
126
PSL
30
ZP
168
Kon
28
Majority requires 231 seats
ZP + KO
294
ZP + PL2050 + Lewica
276
ZP + PL2050 + PSL
255
ZP + PL2050 + Kon
253
ZP + Lewica + Kon
247
KO + PL2050 + PSL + Kon
241
KO + PL2050 + Lewica
234
ZP + PSL + Kon
226

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Poland was conducted by Estymator. The survey took place between 22.09.2022 and 23.09.2022 among 1045 eligible voters. After this election poll would get ZP 35.9%, KO 26.8%, PL2050 12.2%, Lewica 11%, PSL 6.5%, Kon 6.1% and Kukiz’15 1.3%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.