Poland
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Poland: Poll by Social Changes from 22.05.2023

Polling data

ZP
38.0
±0.0
KO
29.0
+1.0
Kon
11.0
+2.0
Lewica
8.0
±0.0
PL2050
6.0
-1.0
PSL
5.0
-2.0
K'15
1.0
±0.0
P
0.0
±0.0
Sonst.
2.0
±0.0
Development since the last election on 15.10.2023
ZP
+2.6
KO
-1.7
Kon
+3.8
Lewica
-0.6
PL2050
New
PSL
New
K'15
New
P
New
Social Changes – 2099 respondents – 19.05.2023-22.05.2023

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Poland is expected to take place in 2027.

Institute often rates KO lower

In 45% of election polls Social Changes rates KO lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Kon higher

In 46% of election polls, Social Changes rates Kon higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates PL2050 lower

In 33% of election polls Social Changes rates PL2050 lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates PSL lower

In 52% of election polls Social Changes rates PSL lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates ZP higher

In 44% of election polls, Social Changes rates ZP higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Poland - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Poland from Social Changes shows the following results: ZP 38%, KO 29%, Kon 11%, Lewica 8%, PL2050 6%, PSL 5%, Kukiz’15 1% and Porozumienie 0%. If an election were held in Poland this Sunday, Kon might gain the most in voter favorability with +3.8 growth since the last election. KO, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-1.7) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Donald Tusk is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from KO, Lewica and PL2050/PSL. With 38.1% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Social Changes. For this purpose, 2099 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 3 days (19.05.2023 - 22.05.2023).

Coalition possibilities

460
Lewica
37
PL2050
28
KO
138
PSL
24
ZP
181
Kon
52
Majority requires 231 seats
ZP + KO
319
KO + Kon + Lewica + PL2050
255
ZP + Lewica + PL2050
246
KO + Kon + PL2050 + PSL
242
ZP + PL2050 + PSL
233
ZP + Kon
233
KO + Lewica + PL2050 + PSL
227
KO + Kon + Lewica
227

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Poland was conducted by Social Changes. The survey took place between 19.05.2023 and 22.05.2023 among 2099 eligible voters. After this election poll would get ZP 38%, KO 29%, Kon 11%, Lewica 8%, PL2050 6%, PSL 5%, Kukiz’15 1% and Porozumienie 0%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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