Poland: Poll by PGB Opinium from 04.10.2023

Polling data

PiS
32.9
-1.8
KO
32.3
+0.5
PL2050/PSL
11.6
+3.1
Lewica
10.1
+0.1
Kon
8.9
-3.2
BS
3.3
+1.2
Others
0.9
+0.1
Development since the last election on 15.10.2023
PiS
New
KO
+1.6
PL2050/PSL
-2.8
Lewica
+1.5
Kon
+1.7
BS
+1.7
PGB Opinium – 1042 respondents – 03.10.2023-04.10.2023

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Poland is expected to take place in 2027.

Institute often rates Kon higher

In 47% of election polls, PGB Opinium rates Kon higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Poland - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Poland from PGB Opinium shows the following results: PiS 32.9%, KO 32.3%, PL2050/PSL 11.6%, Lewica 10.1%, Kon 8.9% and BS 3.3%. If an election were held in Poland this Sunday, Kon might gain the most in voter favorability with +1.7 growth since the last election. PiS, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (New) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Donald Tusk is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from KO, Lewica and PL2050/PSL. With 56.3% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by PGB Opinium. For this purpose, 1042 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 1 days (03.10.2023 - 04.10.2023).

Coalition possibilities

460
Majority requires 231 seats
Lewica
48
10.5%
PL2050/PSL
56
12.1%
KO
155
33.7%
PiS
158
34.3%
Kon
43
9.3%
PiS + KO
68.0%
PiS + PL2050/PSL + Lewica
57.0%
KO + PL2050/PSL + Lewica
56.3%
PiS + PL2050/PSL + Kon
55.9%
KO + PL2050/PSL + Kon
55.2%
PiS + Lewica + Kon
54.1%
KO + Lewica + Kon
53.5%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Poland was conducted by PGB Opinium. The survey took place between 03.10.2023 and 04.10.2023 among 1042 eligible voters. After this election poll would get PiS 32.9%, KO 32.3%, PL2050/PSL 11.6%, Lewica 10.1%, Kon 8.9% and BS 3.3%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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