Poland: Poll by Opinia24 from 04.10.2023

Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
PiS
38.0
+6.0
KO
32.0
+7.0
Lewica
12.0
+3.0
PL2050/PSL
8.0
+8.0
Kon
6.0
-5.0
BS
3.0
+3.0
Others
1.0
-22.0
Development since the last election on 15.10.2023
PiS
New
KO
+1.3
Lewica
+3.4
PL2050/PSL
-6.4
Kon
-1.2
BS
+1.4
Opinia24 – 1000 respondents – 03.10.2023-04.10.2023

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Poland is expected to take place in 2027.

Institute often rates KO higher

In 40% of election polls, Opinia24 rates KO higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Kon higher

In 40% of election polls, Opinia24 rates Kon higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates PiS lower

In 82% of election polls Opinia24 rates PiS lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates PL2050/PSL higher

In 38% of election polls, Opinia24 rates PL2050/PSL higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Poland - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Poland from Opinia24 shows the following results: PiS 38%, KO 32%, Lewica 12%, PL2050/PSL 8%, Kon 6% and BS 3%. If an election were held in Poland this Sunday, Lewica might gain the most in voter favorability with +3.4 growth since the last election. PiS, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (New) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Donald Tusk is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from KO, Lewica and PL2050/PSL. With 54.0% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by Opinia24. For this purpose, 1000 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 1 days (03.10.2023 - 04.10.2023).

Coalition possibilities

460
Majority requires 231 seats
Lewica
57
12.4%
PL2050/PSL
38
8.3%
KO
153
33.3%
PiS
183
39.8%
Kon
29
6.3%
PiS + KO
73.0%
PiS + PL2050/PSL + Kon
54.3%
KO + Lewica + PL2050/PSL
53.9%
PiS + Lewica
52.2%
KO + Lewica + Kon
52.0%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Poland was conducted by Opinia24. The survey took place between 03.10.2023 and 04.10.2023 among 1000 eligible voters. After this election poll would get PiS 38%, KO 32%, Lewica 12%, PL2050/PSL 8%, Kon 6% and BS 3%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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