Poland: Poll by Estymator from 06.10.2023

Polling data

ZP
36.9
-0.5
KO
30.5
-0.1
PL2050/PSL
9.4
-0.2
Kon
9.3
-0.3
Lewica
9.3
+0.6
BS
3.4
-0.2
Others
1.2
+0.7
Development since the last election on 15.10.2023
ZP
+1.5
KO
-0.2
PL2050/PSL
-5.0
Kon
+2.1
Lewica
+0.7
BS
+1.8
Estymator – 1060 respondents – 05.10.2023-06.10.2023

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Poland is expected to take place in 2027.

Institute often rates KO lower

In 42% of election polls Estymator rates KO lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Lewica higher

In 50% of election polls, Estymator rates Lewica higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates ZP higher

In 33% of election polls, Estymator rates ZP higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Poland - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Poland from Estymator shows the following results: ZP 36.9%, KO 30.5%, PL2050/PSL 9.4%, Kon 9.3%, Lewica 9.3% and BS 3.4%. If an election were held in Poland this Sunday, Kon might gain the most in voter favorability with +2.1 growth since the last election. PL2050/PSL, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-5.0) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Donald Tusk is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from KO, Lewica and PL2050/PSL. With 51.6% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by Estymator. For this purpose, 1060 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 1 days (05.10.2023 - 06.10.2023).

Coalition possibilities

460
Majority requires 231 seats
Lewica
44
9.7%
PL2050/PSL
45
9.9%
KO
148
32%
ZP
179
38.7%
Kon
44
9.7%
ZP + KO
71.1%
ZP + PL2050/PSL + Kon
58.3%
ZP + PL2050/PSL + Lewica
58.3%
ZP + Lewica + Kon
58.0%
KO + PL2050/PSL + Lewica
51.5%
KO + PL2050/PSL + Kon
51.5%
KO + Lewica + Kon
51.3%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Poland was conducted by Estymator. The survey took place between 05.10.2023 and 06.10.2023 among 1060 eligible voters. After this election poll would get ZP 36.9%, KO 30.5%, PL2050/PSL 9.4%, Kon 9.3%, Lewica 9.3% and BS 3.4%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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