Poland: Poll by PGB Opinium from 12.10.2023

Poland: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
PiS
33.2
+0.3
KO
30.6
-1.7
PL2050/PSL
11.9
+0.3
Lewica
11.6
+1.5
Kon
8.5
-0.4
BS
3.1
-0.2
Others
1.1
+0.2
Development since the last election on 15.10.2023
PiS
New
KO
-0.1
PL2050/PSL
-2.5
Lewica
+3.0
Kon
+1.3
BS
+1.5
PGB Opinium – 1100 respondents – 11.10.2023-12.10.2023

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Poland is expected to take place in 2027.

Institute often rates Kon higher

In 47% of election polls, PGB Opinium rates Kon higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates PiS lower

In 67% of election polls PGB Opinium rates PiS lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates PL2050/PSL higher

In 33% of election polls, PGB Opinium rates PL2050/PSL higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Poland - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Poland from PGB Opinium shows the following results: PiS 33.2%, KO 30.6%, PL2050/PSL 11.9%, Lewica 11.6%, Kon 8.5% and BS 3.1%. If an election were held in Poland this Sunday, Lewica might gain the most in voter favorability with +3.0 growth since the last election. PiS, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (New) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Donald Tusk is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from KO, Lewica and PL2050/PSL. With 56.4% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by PGB Opinium. For this purpose, 1100 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 1 days (11.10.2023 - 12.10.2023).

Coalition possibilities

460
Majority requires 231 seats
Lewica
55
12%
PL2050/PSL
57
12.4%
KO
147
32%
PiS
160
34.8%
Kon
41
8.9%
PiS + KO
66.7%
PiS + PL2050/PSL + Lewica
59.1%
KO + PL2050/PSL + Lewica
56.3%
PiS + PL2050/PSL + Kon
56.1%
PiS + Lewica + Kon
55.7%
KO + PL2050/PSL + Kon
53.3%
KO + Lewica + Kon
52.8%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Poland was conducted by PGB Opinium. The survey took place between 11.10.2023 and 12.10.2023 among 1100 eligible voters. After this election poll would get PiS 33.2%, KO 30.6%, PL2050/PSL 11.9%, Lewica 11.6%, Kon 8.5% and BS 3.1%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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