Poland: Poll by IBRiS from 25.07.2024

Polling data

KO
33.6
-2.8
PiS
31.3
-3.7
Kon
12.9
+1.3
PL2050/PSL
11.3
+1.4
Lewica
9.4
+2.7
Others
1.5
+1.1
Development since the last election on 15.10.2023
KO
+2.9
PiS
New
Kon
+5.7
PL2050/PSL
-3.1
Lewica
+0.8
IBRiS – 1100 respondents – 24.07.2024-25.07.2024

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Poland is expected to take place in 2027.

Institute often rates Kon lower

In 33% of election polls IBRiS rates Kon lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Lewica higher

In 40% of election polls, IBRiS rates Lewica higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates PiS higher

In 52% of election polls, IBRiS rates PiS higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates PL2050/PSL higher

In 36% of election polls, IBRiS rates PL2050/PSL higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Poland - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Poland from IBRiS shows the following results: KO 33.6%, PiS 31.3%, Kon 12.9%, PL2050/PSL 11.3% and Lewica 9.4%. If an election were held in Poland this Sunday, Kon might gain the most in voter favorability with +5.7 growth since the last election. PL2050/PSL, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-3.1) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Donald Tusk is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from KO, Lewica and PL2050/PSL. With 54.9% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by IBRiS. For this purpose, 1100 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 1 days (24.07.2024 - 25.07.2024).

Coalition possibilities

460
Majority requires 231 seats
Lewica
43
9.3%
PL2050/PSL
53
11.5%
KO
157
34.1%
PiS
147
32%
Kon
60
13%
KO + PiS
66.1%
KO + Kon + PL2050/PSL
58.7%
PiS + Kon + PL2050/PSL
56.5%
KO + Kon + Lewica
56.5%
KO + PL2050/PSL + Lewica
55.0%
PiS + Kon + Lewica
54.3%
PiS + PL2050/PSL + Lewica
52.8%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Poland was conducted by IBRiS. The survey took place between 24.07.2024 and 25.07.2024 among 1100 eligible voters. After this election poll would get KO 33.6%, PiS 31.3%, Kon 12.9%, PL2050/PSL 11.3% and Lewica 9.4%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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