Latest voting intention survey by Aximage for Portugal
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Portugal conducted by Aximage, the parties received the following results: Aliança Democrática 28.4%, Partido Socialista 28.2%, Chega 18.1%, Iniciativa Liberal 7.3%, LIVRE 4.1%, Bloco de Esquerda 3.4%, PAN 2.6% and CDU 2.4%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 654 people during the period 05.05.2025 - 05.05.2025.
654 participants
01.05.2025 - 05.05.2025
Aximage
Seats in parliament
230
Majority requires 116 seats
BE
8
3.5%
CDU
5
2.2%
L
10
4.3%
PAN
6
2.6%
PS
69
30%
IL
18
7.8%
AD
70
30.4%
CH
44
19.1%
Aliança Democrática + Partido Socialista
Aliança Democrática + Chega + Iniciativa Liberal
Aliança Democrática + Chega
72
PolitPro Score
Aximage achieves a score of 72/100 in the PolitPro Score.
What is the PolitPro Score?
The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
2.1
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Aximage pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 2.1 percentage points.
Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from the Results of Recent Elections
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
2.8
|
Parliamentary Election in Portugal 2025 | 5/6 |
|
1.65
|
Parliamentary Election in Portugal 2024 | 5/6 |
|
3.17
|
Parliamentary Election in Portugal 2022 | 5/5 |
|
0.95
|
Parliamentary Election in Portugal 2019 | 4/6 |
How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?
The accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls matched the actual election results.