Latest voting intention survey by Aximage for Portugal
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Portugal conducted by Aximage, the parties received the following results: Aliança Democrática 29.8%, Partido Socialista 28.6%, Chega 18.2%, Iniciativa Liberal 6.8%, LIVRE 4.1%, Bloco de Esquerda 4%, CDU 2.6% and PAN 2.4%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 802 people during the period 19.11.2024 - 19.11.2024.
802 participants
13.11.2024 - 19.11.2024
Aximage
Seats in parliament
230
Majority requires 116 seats
BE
9
3.9%
CDU
6
2.6%
L
9
3.9%
PAN
5
2.2%
PS
69
30%
IL
16
7%
AD
72
31.3%
CH
44
19.1%
Aliança Democrática + Partido Socialista
Aliança Democrática + Chega
Rating of parties
Institute often rates Iniciativa Liberal lower
In 31% of election polls Aximage rates Iniciativa Liberal lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Aximage pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.9 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
1.65
|
Parliamentary Election in Portugal 2024 | 4/5 |
|
3.17
|
Parliamentary Election in Portugal 2022 | 4/4 |
|
0.95
|
Parliamentary Election in Portugal 2019 | 4/6 |
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.