Current election polls and polling data from CESOP–UCP

Latest voting intention survey by CESOP–UCP for Portugal

In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Portugal conducted by CESOP–UCP, the parties received the following results: Partido Socialista 37%, PSD 30%, Bloco de Esquerda 10%, CDU 6%, CDS–Partido Popular 5%, PAN 3%, Chega 1%, Iniciativa Liberal 1%, LIVRE 1% and Aliança 1%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 3226 people during the period 29.09.2019 - 29.09.2019. The survey was commissioned by Público and RTP.
3226 participants
26.09.2019 - 29.09.2019
CESOP–UCP
Público and RTP
PS
37.0
-2.0
PSD
30.0
+2.0
BE
10.0
+1.0
CDU
6.0
-2.0
PP
5.0
-2.0
PAN
3.0
±0.0
CH
1.0
±0.0
IL
1.0
±0.0
L
1.0
±0.0
A
1.0
±0.0
Others
5.0
+3.0
This poll is more than 3 months old.

Seats in parliament

230
Majority requires 116 seats
BE
24
10.4%
CDU
14
6.1%
PAN
7
3%
L
2
0.9%
PS
91
39.6%
A
2
0.9%
IL
2
0.9%
PSD
74
32.2%
PP
12
5.2%
CH
2
0.9%
Partido Socialista + PSD
71.7%
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + CDU
56.1%
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + PAN
53.0%
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda
50.0%

?

PolitPro Score

CESOP–UCP achieves a score of ?/100 in the PolitPro Score.

What is the PolitPro Score?

The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.

Rating of parties

Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)

Lower
Similar
Higher
A
Not enough data available
BE
Not enough data available
CDU
Not enough data available
CH
Not enough data available
IL
Not enough data available
L
Not enough data available
PAN
Not enough data available
PP
Not enough data available
PS
Not enough data available
PSD
Not enough data available

What are significant differences?

The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.

Accuracy in elections

0.6

Average deviation

On average, party poll results in CESOP–UCP pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 0.6 percentage points.

Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from the Results of Recent Elections

Deviation Election Rank
0.64
Parliamentary Election in Portugal 2019 2/6

How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?

The accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls matched the actual election results.