Latest voting intention survey by Consulmark2 for Portugal
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Portugal conducted by Consulmark2, the parties received the following results: Aliança Democrática 29.8%, Partido Socialista 27%, Chega 18.2%, Iniciativa Liberal 6.4%, Bloco de Esquerda 5.2%, LIVRE 4.6%, CDU 2.5% and PAN 1.2%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 801 people during the period 06.03.2024 - 06.03.2024.
801 participants
01.03.2024 - 06.03.2024
Consulmark2
AD
29.8
-0.2
PS
27.0
-0.4
CH
18.2
+0.1
IL
6.4
+0.9
BE
5.2
+1.0
L
4.6
+1.7
CDU
2.5
-0.1
PAN
1.2
+0.1
Others
5.1
-3.1
This poll is more than 3 months old.
Seats in parliament
230
Majority requires 116 seats
BE
12
5.2%
CDU
6
2.6%
L
11
4.8%
PAN
3
1.3%
PS
66
28.7%
IL
15
6.5%
AD
73
31.7%
CH
44
19.1%
Aliança Democrática + Partido Socialista
Aliança Democrática + Chega
72
PolitPro Score
Consulmark2 achieves a score of 72/100 in the PolitPro Score.
What is the PolitPro Score?
The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
0.9
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Consulmark2 pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 0.9 percentage points.
Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from the Results of Recent Elections
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
0.9
|
Parliamentary Election in Portugal 2024 | 1/6 |
How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?
The accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls matched the actual election results.