Current election polls and polling data from ICS/ISCTE

Latest voting intention survey by ICS/ISCTE for Portugal

In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Portugal conducted by ICS/ISCTE, the parties received the following results: Aliança Democrática 33%, Partido Socialista 30%, Chega 17%, Iniciativa Liberal 4%, Bloco de Esquerda 3%, CDU 3%, LIVRE 2% and PAN 2%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 805 people during the period 20.01.2025 - 20.01.2025.
805 participants
09.01.2025 - 20.01.2025
ICS/ISCTE
AD
33.0
+2.0
PS
30.0
±0.0
CH
17.0
±0.0
IL
4.0
±0.0
BE
3.0
-2.0
CDU
3.0
±0.0
L
2.0
±0.0
PAN
2.0
±0.0
Others
6.0
±0.0

Seats in parliament

230
Majority requires 116 seats
BE
7
3%
CDU
7
3%
L
4
1.7%
PAN
4
1.7%
PS
74
32.2%
IL
10
4.3%
AD
82
35.7%
CH
42
18.3%
Aliança Democrática + Partido Socialista
67.8%
Aliança Democrática + Chega
53.9%
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + Bloco de Esquerda + CDU + PAN

61

PolitPro Score

ICS/ISCTE achieves a score of 61/100 in the PolitPro Score.

What is the PolitPro Score?

The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.

Rating of parties

Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)

Lower
Similar
Higher
AD
Not enough data available
BE
31
63
6
CDU
0
75
25
CH
27
47
27
IL
60
40
0
L
56
44
0
PAN
6
94
0
PS
13
38
50

What are significant differences?

The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.

Accuracy in elections

1.8

Average deviation

On average, party poll results in ICS/ISCTE pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.8 percentage points.

Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from the Results of Recent Elections

How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?

The accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls matched the actual election results.