Latest voting intention survey by Intercampus for Portugal
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Portugal conducted by Intercampus, the parties received the following results: Partido Socialista 30%, Aliança Democrática 28.8%, Chega 16.2%, Iniciativa Liberal 8.3%, Bloco de Esquerda 5.8%, CDU 3.3%, LIVRE 3.3% and PAN 3.2%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 605 people during the period 27.11.2024 - 27.11.2024. The survey was commissioned by Correio da Manhã.
605 participants
27.11.2024 - 27.11.2024
Intercampus
Correio da Manhã
Seats in parliament
230
Majority requires 116 seats
BE
13
5.9%
CDU
7
3.3%
L
7
3.3%
PAN
7
3.2%
PS
71
30.3%
IL
19
8.4%
AD
68
29.1%
CH
38
16.4%
Partido Socialista + Aliança Democrática
Aliança Democrática + Chega + Iniciativa Liberal
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + Bloco de Esquerda + CDU + PAN
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + Bloco de Esquerda + CDU + LIVRE
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + Bloco de Esquerda + LIVRE + PAN
Rating of parties
Institute often rates Bloco de Esquerda higher
In 42% of election polls, Intercampus rates Bloco de Esquerda higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Iniciativa Liberal higher
In 33% of election polls, Intercampus rates Iniciativa Liberal higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Partido Socialista lower
In 40% of election polls Intercampus rates Partido Socialista lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Intercampus pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 2.1 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
2.4
1.85
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.