Latest voting intention survey by Intercampus for Portugal
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Portugal conducted by Intercampus, the parties received the following results: Partido Socialista 28.6%, Aliança Democrática 26.9%, Chega 17.4%, Iniciativa Liberal 8%, Bloco de Esquerda 5.5%, LIVRE 4.5%, CDU 3.4% and PAN 3.4%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 620 people during the period 10.03.2025 - 10.03.2025. The survey was commissioned by Correio da Manhã.
620 participants
04.03.2025 - 10.03.2025
Intercampus
Correio da Manhã
Seats in parliament
230
Majority requires 116 seats
BE
13
5.7%
CDU
8
3.5%
L
10
4.3%
PAN
8
3.5%
PS
68
29.6%
IL
19
8.3%
AD
63
27.4%
CH
41
17.8%
Partido Socialista + Aliança Democrática
Aliança Democrática + Chega + Iniciativa Liberal
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + Bloco de Esquerda + LIVRE + CDU
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + Bloco de Esquerda + LIVRE + PAN
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + Bloco de Esquerda + CDU + PAN
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + LIVRE + CDU + PAN
68
PolitPro Score
Intercampus achieves a score of 68/100 in the PolitPro Score.
What is the PolitPro Score?
The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
2.1
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Intercampus pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 2.1 percentage points.
Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from the Results of Recent Elections
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
2.16
|
Parliamentary Election in Portugal 2024 | 6/6 |
|
2.4
|
Parliamentary Election in Portugal 2022 | 2/5 |
|
1.85
|
Parliamentary Election in Portugal 2019 | 6/6 |
How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?
The accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls matched the actual election results.