Current election polls and polling data from Pitagórica

Latest voting intention survey by Pitagórica for Portugal

In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Portugal conducted by Pitagórica, the parties received the following results: Aliança Democrática 32.9%, Partido Socialista 26.9%, Chega 16.3%, Iniciativa Liberal 5.7%, Bloco de Esquerda 4.3%, CDU 4%, LIVRE 3.1% and PAN 1.4%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 400 people during the period 05.01.2025 - 05.01.2025.
400 participants
28.12.2024 - 05.01.2025
Pitagórica
AD
32.9
+32.9
PS
26.9
±0.0
CH
16.3
+2.1
IL
5.7
-2.3
BE
4.3
-1.3
CDU
4.0
+1.8
L
3.1
+1.2
PAN
1.4
+0.5
Others
5.4
-34.9

Seats in parliament

230
Majority requires 116 seats
BE
10
4.3%
CDU
9
3.9%
L
7
3%
PAN
3
1.3%
PS
66
28.7%
IL
14
6.1%
AD
81
35.2%
CH
40
17.4%
Aliança Democrática + Partido Socialista
63.9%
Aliança Democrática + Chega
52.6%
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + Bloco de Esquerda + CDU + LIVRE

74

PolitPro Score

Pitagórica achieves a score of 74/100 in the PolitPro Score.

What is the PolitPro Score?

The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.

Rating of parties

Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)

Lower
Similar
Higher
AD
Not enough data available
BE
26
68
6
CDU
9
85
6
CH
18
75
8
IL
9
79
12
L
0
100
0
PAN
17
81
2
PS
23
34
43

What are significant differences?

The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.

Accuracy in elections

1.5

Average deviation

On average, party poll results in Pitagórica pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.5 percentage points.

Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from the Results of Recent Elections

How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?

The accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls matched the actual election results.